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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

San Lorenzo - Unión Santa Fe

08/15/2026, 05:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
San Lorenzo
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Unión Santa Fe
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SLUSF

San Lorenzo

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average)
-0.12
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.01
Facundo Gulli not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
M. de Ritis on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.2 vs 1 goals/match)

Unión Santa Fe

Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.65
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.60
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.17
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    San Lorenzo with Nahuel Barrios: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    San Lorenzo: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Unión Santa Fe with Marcelo Estigarribia: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Unión Santa Fe: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

29%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • San Lorenzo's goal production has stalled recently at an average of 0.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.0
  • Unión Santa Fe averaged 4.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • San Lorenzo are missing Facundo Gulli and M. de Ritis, leaving only 80% of their usual offensive strength available
Risk Factors
  • San Lorenzo average only 0.79 home goals per game
  • Unión Santa Fe concede an average of 1.83 goals per away match
Overview

San Lorenzo host Unión Santa Fe at the Estadio Pedro Bidegain

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 15, 2026, 6:30 PM

San Lorenzo sit in 7th place with 22 points, while the visitors loom in 8th with 21 points

Mathematical models predict a highly balanced match with a 36% home win and a 35% away win probability

A tight mid-table battle is expected

Form

Both teams are experiencing a decline in form

San Lorenzo's form is DLWLL with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Unión Santa Fe's form is LDLWL with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

San Lorenzo have lost their last two consecutive matches

Statistics

San Lorenzo score an average of 0.81 goals and concede 0.95 goals this season

In home matches, they average 0.79 goals scored and 0.93 goals conceded

Unión Santa Fe average 1.42 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded away from home

Mathematical models estimate a 56% probability of both teams scoring

The visitors are yet to record a clean sheet in their away matches this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in the database

San Lorenzo recorded 0 wins, while Unión Santa Fe won 1 match and 1 ended in a draw

The last encounter on February 14, 2026, ended in a 0:0 draw

Unión Santa Fe scored 2 goals in these matches, compared to 1 goal for San Lorenzo

Key Players

Alexis Cuello scored 4 goals and provided 3 assists in 20 appearances

Rodrigo Auzmendi leads the home attack with 5 goals in 12 matches

Matías Reali contributed 1 assist in 11 seasonal appearances

Julián Palacios has recorded 3 goals and 8 assists in 21 appearances for the visitors

Cristian Tarragona is the visitors' top scorer with 9 goals in 22 games

Lucas Menossi has scored 3 goals in 9 games this season

Goalkeepers

José Devecchi guards the goal for San Lorenzo with a season average rating of 6.59

San Lorenzo have kept 10 clean sheets this season

Matías Mansilla is in goal for Unión Santa Fe with a season average rating of 6.80

The visitors have registered 5 clean sheets so far

Influences

The Estadio Pedro Bidegain has averaged 1.4 goals per game in recent matches

Both teams scored in only 1 out of 5 home matches at this venue

San Lorenzo have a minor physical advantage with 6 rest days compared to Unión Santa Fe's 4 days

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