đŸ‡ŠđŸ‡·

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Belgrano - Independiente Rivadavia

08/15/2026, 10:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Belgrano
1.0
Total xG
2.1
Independiente Rivadavia
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

11%

1:0

11%

1:2

7%
What influences the xG?
BELIR

Belgrano

Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.10
NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Lucas Zelarayån  on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 93% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)

Independiente Rivadavia

Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.19
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.04
MatĂ­as FernĂĄndez on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Fabrizio Sartori on the bench (7 goals, 0 assists)
Álex Arce  on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Juan Elordi on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Luciano GĂłmez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Leonard Costa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Sheyko Studer on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
62% of goal output missing (only 46% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.44
-0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Independiente Rivadavia with IvĂĄn Villalba: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Belgrano: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Independiente Rivadavia: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Belgrano: 45% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 11)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

34%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Massive squad impact for the visitors: Only 46% of regular starting XI strength is available, missing top scorers Fabrizio Sartori and Álex Arce
  • Opposing form trends: Belgrano is scoring more frequently than their season average while the league leaders' attack is stalling
  • Home defensive strength: Belgrano concedes only 0.54 goals per home game on average
Risk Factors
  • Belgrano is missing key creative players NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez and Lucas ZelarayĂĄn
  • Inexperience in the visitors' goal with Emmanuel GĂłmez Riga making only his second appearance of the season
  • The mathematical model suggests a highly balanced match with a 34% draw probability
Overview

Belgrano (5th place, 26 points) host league leaders Independiente Rivadavia (1st place, 34 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 15, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC

A top-tier clash at the upper end of the table

Form

Belgrano in form WWLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) with a recent win against Banfield

Independiente Rivadavia in form LDWLW with a recent win against Estudiantes de RĂ­o Cuarto

Belgrano shows a rising trend with 1.8 goals recently compared to their 1.4 season average

The league leaders' scoring has stalled recently at 1.5 goals compared to 1.8 on average

Statistics

Belgrano concedes only 0.54 goals per home game on average

Independiente Rivadavia scores 1.57 goals per away game on average

The visitors have had 15 matches where both teams scored this season

Head-to-Head

A total of 4 head-to-head matches in history

Independiente Rivadavia leads with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last encounter on February 15, 2026 ended in a 1-0 away victory for Belgrano

Key Players

Franco VĂĄzquez contributed 2 goals and 4 assists in 21 midfield appearances

Lucas Passerini scored 1 goal and provided 6 assists

Francisco GonzĂĄlez Metilli has scored 4 goals this season

José Florentín is one of the visitors' biggest threats in midfield with 4 goals

Alejo Osella has also scored 4 goals from defense this season

Rodrigo Atencio stands out with 4 assists in 19 games

Goalkeepers

Thiago Cardozo is in goal for Belgrano with an average rating of 7.14

Emmanuel GĂłmez Riga guards the visitors' goal and has only made one appearance this season

Influences

The match takes place on grass at Estadio Julio CĂ©sar Villagra

Belgrano's home record shows an extremely stable defense with only 7 goals conceded in 13 home games

The venue average stands at 2.2 goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.