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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Barracas Central - Rosario Central

08/16/2026, 11:15 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Barracas Central
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Rosario Central
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
BCRC

Barracas Central

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
+0.13
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.12
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.08
NicolĂĄs Demartini on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Rosario Central

Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.21
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.14
Ángel Di María not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
JĂĄminton Campaz not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Enzo Copetti not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Gastón Ávila not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Vicente TomĂĄs Pizarro Durcudoy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Giovanni Cantizano not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
79% of goal output missing (only 24% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Rosario Central with Facundo Mallo: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Barracas Central with Norberto Briasco: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Rosario Central: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Rosario Central: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Rosario Central: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

33%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Massive squad depletion for Rosario Central: Only 24% of the usual goal threat is available, with key players like Ángel Di MarĂ­a and Enzo Copetti missing
  • Strong home defense: Barracas Central concedes an average of only 0.73 goals per home match
  • Low offensive threat from visitors: Rosario Central averaged only 2.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Struggling offense for Barracas Central: With an average of 0.8 goals per match in recent form, the hosts are performing below their season average
  • Few goalscoring chances for the visitors: Rosario Central averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Balanced head-to-head history: So far, both teams have recorded one win and one loss in their two direct meetings
Overview

Barracas Central (9th place, 21 points) host Rosario Central (4th place, 28 points) at Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 17, 2026, 12:15 AM

Both teams look to secure crucial points in the standings

Form

Barracas Central enter the match with form LWWWL in recent games

Rosario Central show a form of LLDWW

Barracas lost their last game 0-2 against Gimnasia La Plata

Rosario Central won their latest match 2-1 against Aldosivi

Form string key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Barracas Central score an average of 0.90 goals per match and concede 0.85

Rosario Central score an average of 1.26 goals and concede 0.96

At home Barracas are defensive solid with 0.91 goals scored and 0.73 conceded on average

Rosario Central record 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded on their travels

The hosts have kept 7 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in history

The record is perfectly balanced with one win for each side

The last encounter on February 16, 2026 ended in a 2-0 victory for Rosario Central

Overall goals scored in head-to-head matches stand at 2-1 in favor of Rosario Central

Key Players

TomĂĄs Porra (Midfielder, 1 goal, 4 assists, rating 6.81)

Rodrigo InsĂșa (Defender, 3 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.80)

IvĂĄn Tapia (Midfielder, 1 goal, 2 assists, rating 6.82)

JuliĂĄn FernĂĄndez (Attacker, 2 goals, 3 assists, rating 7.01)

Pol FernĂĄndez (Midfielder, 0 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.78)

Alexis Soto (Defender, 1 goal, 0 assists, rating 6.79)

Goalkeepers

Marcelo Miño is in goal for Barracas Central with a strong average rating of 7.40

Axel Werner starts for the visitors and is yet to play a match this season

Barracas have kept 7 clean sheets this season compared to 6 for Rosario Central

Influences

Home advantage for Barracas Central at Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia on grass

The hosts concede an average of only 0.73 goals per match at home

Stadium stats show an average of 2.0 goals per match with a 60% BTTS rate

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