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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Platense - Boca Juniors

08/16/2026, 12:15 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Platense
0.8
Total xG
2.2
Boca Juniors
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

13%

0:0

12%

0:2

10%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
PLABJ

Platense

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.04
28% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Boca Juniors

Attack strength (1.52x league average)
+0.70
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.07
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.06
Miguel Merentiel  on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Platense with Pablo Ferreira: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Boca Juniors with Milton Giménez : 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Boca Juniors: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Platense: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Platense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

31%

Away Win

48%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

52%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Possession dominance: Boca Juniors recently controlled an average of 66% possession and averaged 5.8 shots on target per match
  • Favorite status: Boca Juniors (2nd place, 30 points) has a calculated win probability of 48% compared to Platense (12th place)
  • Squad efficiency: Platense only averages 0.7 goals scored per game this season, which poses a major challenge against Boca's solid defense (0.86 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
  • Squad impact: Boca Juniors is missing key player Miguel Merentiel from the lineup, leaving only 81% of their typical starting strength
  • Historical hurdle: Platense is undefeated in the last two head-to-head matches (1 win, 1 draw) and kept clean sheets in both
  • Defensive weakness at home: Platense concedes an average of 1.56 goals per home match
Overview

Platense (12th place, 16 points) hosts Boca Juniors (2nd place, 30 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente LĂłpez on August 16, 2026, 2:15 AM

Boca Juniors is favored with a calculated 48% win probability

Form

Platense's recent form is LDLLW with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Platense won their last match 1-0 against Independiente

Boca Juniors' recent form is LLDWD with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Boca Juniors recorded a 1-1 draw against VĂ©lez Sarsfield in their last match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Platense scores an average of 0.7 goals and concedes 1.15 goals per game this season

In home matches, Platense averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded

Boca Juniors averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded per game this season

In away matches, Boca Juniors scores an average of 1.33 goals and concedes 0.92 goals

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches in recent history

Platense achieved 1 win, Boca Juniors has 0 wins, and there was 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a 0-0 draw on February 15, 2026

Key Players

Guido Mainero shows a rising form trend with 1 goal in the last 5 matches and a 7.04 rating

NicolĂĄs Retamar has 1 goal and 2 assists this season with an average rating of 6.74

Ignacio VĂĄzquez stabilizes the defense with an average season rating of 6.98

Santiago AscacĂ­bar is in rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 matches and 5 season goals

Leandro Paredes contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season with a high average rating of 7.61

Lautaro Blanco provided 2 assists over his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Juan Pablo Cozzani played the last 5 matches with an average rating of 6.90

Platense has recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Álvaro Montero kept goal in 4 of the last 5 matches with a rating of 6.69

Boca Juniors has achieved 10 clean sheets in the ongoing campaign

Influences

Home advantage for Platense at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente LĂłpez on grass

Platense is less effective offensively at home with only 0.67 goals scored per game

Historical matches at this venue show an average of 2.6 goals per game

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