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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield - Defensa y Justicia

08/17/2026, 10:15 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Vélez Sarsfield
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Defensa y Justicia
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
VSDYJ

Vélez Sarsfield

Defensive weakness (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.38
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap)
+0.05
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
16% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Defensa y Justicia

Attack strength (1.42x league average)
+0.97
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.43
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.44
-0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Defensa y Justicia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Defensa y Justicia with David Barbona: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Defensa y Justicia: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Vélez Sarsfield with Luca Feler: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

28%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Strong home defense: Vélez Sarsfield conceded an average of only 0.71 goals per game this season
  • Offensive tactical threat: Defensa y Justicia recently averaged 6.0 shots on target and 62.4% possession
  • Mathematical advantage: The model calculates a 67% probability for a home win or draw
Risk Factors
  • Visitors' form crisis: Defensa y Justicia shows a negative form trend with goal production stalling at 1.2 goals per game
  • Away defensive weakness: The visitors concede an average of 1.4 goals in away games
  • Limited historical data: Only 2 head-to-head matches are available as a historical basis for comparison
Overview

Vélez Sarsfield (3rd place, 28 points) hosts Defensa y Justicia (10th place, 19 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 17, 2026, 11:15 PM

An important clash at Estadio José Amalfitani for positions in the standings

Form

Vélez Sarsfield shows stable form with the record LWWWD

The hosts recently took 3 wins and a draw from their past 5 matches

Defensa y Justicia travels with the record LDWLW, recording 2 wins and 2 losses recently

Statistics

Vélez Sarsfield scores an average of 1.14 goals per game and concedes only 0.71 goals

The visitors average 1.15 goals but concede 1.35 goals per game

In home games, the hosts average 1.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded

Away from home, Defensa y Justicia concedes an average of 1.4 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in history

Vélez Sarsfield leads the record with one win and one draw

The last encounter on February 14, 2026 ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

Manuel Lanzini scored 4 goals this season with an average rating of 7.18

Lucas Robertone shows rising form with one assist in the recent period

Matías Pellegrini scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists so far this season

Juan Gutiérrez stands out for the visitors with 4 goals and 3 assists this season

Ayrton Portillo contributed 3 goals and one assist this season

David Barbona shows rising form with 2 goals in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Tomás Marchiori is in goal for the hosts and has a strong season rating of 7.49

Matías Borgogno guards the goal for Defensa y Justicia with an average rating of 7.05

The hosts have kept 9 clean sheets so far this season

The visitors have recorded 5 clean sheets this campaign

Influences

The match takes place on grass at Estadio José Amalfitani

Historical stadium statistics show an average of 1.8 goals per game at this venue

The historical rate for both teams to score at this venue is 40%

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