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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Sarmiento - Huracán

08/16/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Sarmiento
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Huracán
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

10%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SARHUR

Sarmiento

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.15
Cristian Zabala on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Pablo Magnin on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Huracán

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.37
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Emmanuel Ojeda not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
César Ibáñez not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sarmiento: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Huracán: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 3
    Sarmiento: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Huracán with Hugo Nervo: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Sarmiento: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

32%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Sarmiento is currently scoring more frequently, averaging 1.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.1
  • Huracán boasts a strong defense this season, conceding an average of just 0.82 goals per game
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an extremely balanced match with 1.15 expected goals for each side
Risk Factors
  • Sarmiento has been defensively vulnerable this season, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game
  • Huracán's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goal compared to their season average of 1.4
Overview

Sarmiento hosts Huracán at the Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 16, 2026, 7:00 PM

Clash between 11th-placed Sarmiento (19 points) and 7th-placed Huracán (22 points)

A balanced mid-table encounter with both teams seeking crucial points

Form

Sarmiento is on an upward trend with a form of LLLWW and two consecutive wins

Huracán travels with a form of LWLDW and a win in their last match

Sarmiento recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Huracán secured 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 outings

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Sarmiento scores an average of 1.05 goals and concedes 1.4 goals per game this season

In home matches, Sarmiento is solid, scoring avg. 1.08 and conceding only 0.83 goals

Huracán boasts a strong defense with only 0.82 goals conceded on average alongside 1.09 scored

Away from home, Huracán remains balanced, scoring avg. 1.09 and conceding 0.91 goals

Sarmiento has kept 5 clean sheets, whereas Huracán has recorded 10

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in the database

Huracán has won both previous encounters

The last head-to-head match on February 14, 2026, ended in a 0:1 win for Huracán

The goal difference from these meetings is 1:4 in favor of Huracán

Key Players

Junior Marabel leads the attack with 9 goals and 3 assists this season, averaging a 6.92 rating

Julián Mavilla scored 2 goals in 3 games with a strong 7.53 average rating

Jonathan Herrera contributed 1 goal in 4 appearances this season

Jordy Caicedo is the top threat with 11 goals in 21 matches

Óscar Cortés stands out with 2 goals and 4 assists this season

Leonardo Gil directs the midfield with 1 goal, 2 assists, and a 7.12 rating

Goalkeepers

Thyago Ayala guards the goal for Sarmiento, holding a strong average rating of 7.83

Hernán Galíndez is in goal for Huracán, recording a season-average rating of 7.00

Ayala has made 2 appearances this season, while Galíndez has played 21 matches

Sarmiento has 5 clean sheets in total, compared to Huracán's 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Sarmiento benefits from home advantage, conceding just 0.83 goals per home match

Venue stats show an average of 2.8 goals per match at this stadium

Huracán travels with a balanced away record of 1.09 goals scored per away game

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