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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Lanús - Independiente

08/17/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Lanús
1.4
Total xG
2.1
Independiente
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

1:1

14%

0:0

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
LANIND

Lanús

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.06
Lucas Besozzi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Independiente

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.16
Matías Abaldo on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Maximiliano Gutiérrez on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lanús with Ronaldo Dejesús: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Independiente with Sebastián Valdez: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Yoshan Valois: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Lanús: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Independiente: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

31%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Home defensive advantage: Lanús concedes only 0.67 goals on average at home
  • Tactical metrics: Lanús averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches compared to Independiente's 3.8
  • Mathematical favorability: The model calculates a 50% home win probability for Lanús
Risk Factors
  • Key absences for Independiente: Missing Matías Abaldo (5 goals) and Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 goals) leaves only 80% of regular starting strength
  • Head-to-head record: Independiente won the last direct matchup 2-0 playing away
  • Extremely low scoring trend: Recent games at this venue averaged only 0.6 total goals per match with 0% BTTS
Overview

Lanús (6th place, 24 points) host Independiente (5th place, 24 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 17, 2026, 10:00 PM

Both teams enter this match level on points

Form

Lanús form: LWLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Independiente form: LWWLL

Lanús won their last match 3-0 away against Talleres Córdoba

Independiente lost their last match 0-1 at home against Platense

Statistics

Lanús averages 1.1 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded

At home Lanús concedes only 0.67 goals per match with 6 clean sheets

Independiente averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded away

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches

Independiente with 2 wins, Lanús with 1 win and 1 draw

Their last meeting on February 13, 2026 ended 2-0 in favor of Independiente

Key Players

Dylan Aquino (6 goals, 2 assists)

Carlos Izquierdoz (Defender, 7.09 average rating)

Felipe Peña Biafore (Midfielder, 6.81 average rating, 1 goal in the last 5 matches)

Goalkeepers

Nahuel Losada (7.11 average rating, 9 clean sheets)

Rodrigo Rey (6.79 average rating, 6 clean sheets)

Influences

Strong home defense for Lanús conceding only 0.67 goals per match

Extremely low scoring history at the venue with 0.6 average goals per match

Played on natural grass

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