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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Aldosivi - Tigre

08/15/2026, 05:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Aldosivi
0.8
Total xG
2.0
Tigre
1.1
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

1:1

15%

0:1

14%

1:0

10%

0:2

9%
What influences the xG?
ALDTIG

Aldosivi

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.52
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Rising form (0.8 vs 0.6 season average)
+0.07
NicolĂĄs Cordero on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
TomĂĄs FernĂĄndez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 31% available)
Strong home record (0.9 vs 0.6 goals/match)

Tigre

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+0.38
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Gonzalo MartĂ­nez not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tigre with Nahuel Banegas: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Aldosivi with AgustĂ­n Palavecino: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Aldosivi: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Tigre: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

34%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Tactical edge: Tigre recently averaged 4.0 shots on target per match compared to Aldosivi's 3.4
  • Squad impact: Aldosivi is severely weakened without NicolĂĄs Cordero and TomĂĄs FernĂĄndez, leaving only 31% of their active goal share available
  • Historical dominance: Tigre won all 3 previous head-to-head encounters without conceding a single goal
Risk Factors
  • Offensive struggle: Aldosivi failed to score in 11 out of 20 matches this season
  • Low attacking output: Aldosivi averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Aldosivi host Tigre at the Estadio José María Minella

Match on August 15, 2026, 5:30 PM

Aldosivi are currently in 14th place with 8 points

Tigre occupy 10th place with 20 points

The away team enters the match as favorites

Form

Aldosivi are struggling with the form string DDLLL

The home team has suffered 3 consecutive losses

Tigre show more stability with the form string DLWDW

The visitors recorded 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games

Statistics

Aldosivi average only 0.45 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded per match

At home, Aldosivi's defense is more solid, conceding 0.78 goals per game

Tigre score an average of 1.1 goals and concede 0.85 goals per game

The away side remains dangerous on the road with 1.11 goals scored per match

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches so far

Tigre dominate the history with 3 wins and 0 losses

The last meeting ended in a 1-0 win for Tigre on February 12, 2026

Aldosivi has never scored against Tigre with a goal difference of 0:5

Key Players

Alan Sosa scored 1 goal in 14 games with an average rating of 6.85

NicolĂĄs GaitĂĄn has 1 goal in 2 games with a rating of 6.95

Ignacio Russo leads Tigre with 6 goals and 3 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Lucas Acosta starts for Aldosivi with a season rating of 6.1

Lautaro Morales has no appearances for Tigre in this campaign

Aldosivi kept 4 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio José María Minella

Matches at this venue produce an average of 1.8 goals per game

The both-teams-to-score rate at this stadium is 60%

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