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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

River Plate - Vélez Sarsfield

08/23/2026, 10:15 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
River Plate
1.7
Total xG
2.6
Vélez Sarsfield
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
RPVS

River Plate

Attack strength (1.43x league average)
+0.78
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.29
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.27
Gonzalo Montiel on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Tomás Galván on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
68% of goal output missing (only 45% available)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match)

Vélez Sarsfield

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Dilan Godoy on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.44
-0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    River Plate with Aníbal Moreno: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

27%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Only 45% of the goal threat is available for River Plate, without Gonzalo Montiel and Tomás Galván
  • Form contrast: Vélez Sarsfield is currently scoring more (1.4) than their season average, while River Plate's goal production recently slowed down to 0.4
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 56% for River Plate
Risk Factors
  • River Plate recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target despite 65% possession
  • Low scoring rate at Estadio Mâs Monumental with an average of only 1.4 goals per match
Overview

River Plate (2nd place, 29 points) host Vélez Sarsfield (3rd place, 28 points) at Estadio Mâs Monumental

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 23, 2026, 11:15 PM

A direct clash in the upper part of the table with only one point separating them

Form

River Plate's form is LL-LL-W with 1 win and 4 losses in recent matches

Vélez Sarsfield's form is WW-WD-D with 3 wins and 2 draws (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

River Plate recently ended a 4-game losing streak with a 2-0 win over Argentinos Juniors

Vélez Sarsfield remains unbeaten in their last 5 matches

Statistics

River Plate scores an average of 1.24 goals and concedes 0.84 goals per game this season

Vélez Sarsfield averages 1.14 goals scored and 0.73 goals conceded

In home games, River Plate scores 1.21 goals on average and concedes 0.79

In away games, Vélez Sarsfield scores 1.18 goals on average while conceding 0.73

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 1, Vélez Sarsfield won 1, and 2 ended in draws

The goal difference in these meetings stands at 5-3 in favor of River Plate

The last head-to-head match on February 22, 2026, ended in a 1-0 win for Vélez Sarsfield

Key Players

Lucas Martínez Quarta scored 2 goals in 24 defender appearances this season, keeping an average rating of 7.05

Ángel Correa scored 1 goal in 4 forward appearances with a rating of 7.05

Aníbal Moreno provided 3 assists in 23 midfield appearances with a rating of 7.04

Manuel Lanzini has scored 5 goals in 22 midfield appearances this season with a rating of 7.22

Matías Pellegrini has recorded 3 goals and 3 assists in 17 forward appearances

Thiago Silvero has scored 1 goal in 9 defender appearances with a rating of 7.04

Not in squad: Dilan Godoy

Goalkeepers

Santiago Beltrán has played 25 matches in goal this season, holding an average rating of 6.83

Tomás Marchiori has made 5 appearances in goal this season, maintaining a rating of 7.27

River Plate has kept 10 clean sheets this season, while Vélez Sarsfield has recorded 9 clean sheets

Influences

River Plate has played 19 home games this season, scoring 1.21 goals and conceding 0.79 goals on average

The Estadio Mâs Monumental averages 1.4 total goals per match

None of the last 5 matches at this venue saw both teams score (0% BTTS)

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