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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Belgrano - Defensa y Justicia

08/23/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Belgrano
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Defensa y Justicia
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
BELDYJ

Belgrano

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Lucas Zelarayån  on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Defensa y Justicia

Attack strength (1.32x league average)
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.44
-0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgrano: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    Defensa y Justicia with David Barbona: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Belgrano: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Belgrano: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Defensa y Justicia: 67% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

33%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Home defense strength: Belgrano concede only 0.50 goals per game on average in their own stadium
  • Tactical control: Defensa y Justicia dominated possession recently with an average of 59.6% and averaged 6.4 shots on target per match
  • Form trend: NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez is in rising form with 3 goals in his last 4 matches for Belgrano
Risk Factors
  • Key absence: Lucas ZelarayĂĄn (4 goals, 3 assists) is not included in Belgrano's squad
  • Away defensive issues: Defensa y Justicia concede an average of 1.36 goals per away game
  • Close matchup: The mathematical probability of a draw is predicted at 33%
Overview

Belgrano host Defensa y Justicia

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 23, 2026, 10:00 PM

Fifth-placed Belgrano with 26 points challenge tenth-placed Defensa y Justicia with 19 points

Form

Belgrano with form WLDWW and two consecutive wins

Defensa y Justicia with form DWLWD

Belgrano recorded 3 wins in their last 5 games

Defensa y Justicia got 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches

Statistics

Belgrano average 1.20 goals scored and 0.72 goals conceded this season

Strong home record for Belgrano with only 0.50 goals conceded per game on average

Defensa y Justicia score 1.09 goals and concede 1.36 goals on average in away matches

Home matches of Belgrano average 2.40 total goals

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in history

Defensa y Justicia lead with 2 wins compared to 1 win for Belgrano and 1 draw

Balanced goal record of 5:5 goals

The last meeting on February 20, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez has 5 goals and 4 assists this season for Belgrano

Lucas Passerini contributed 1 goal and 6 assists so far

Juan Gutiérrez is the top scorer for the guests with 4 goals and 4 assists

David Barbona scored 3 goals in 14 appearances

Goalkeepers

Thiago Cardozo played 24 matches for Belgrano keeping 13 clean sheets

MatĂ­as Borgogno played 5 games for the guests whose team kept 5 clean sheets in total

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Estadio Julio CĂ©sar Villagra

Strong home factor for Belgrano with only 7 goals conceded in 14 home games

Historically, matches at Belgrano's stadium average 2.40 goals per game

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