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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Sarmiento - Estudiantes

08/23/2026, 05:45 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Sarmiento
0.9
Total xG
1.8
Estudiantes
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

18%

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

13%

0:2

7%
What influences the xG?
SAREST

Sarmiento

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.26
Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.26
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap)
-0.10

Estudiantes

Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap)
+0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Tiago Palacios not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
JoaquĂ­n Tobio Burgos on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Guido Carrillo on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
GastĂłn Benedetti on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 75% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.44
-0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estudiantes with JoaquĂ­n Tobio Burgos: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Sarmiento: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Sarmiento with Jonathan Herrera: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Sarmiento: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Sarmiento: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

36%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

56%

Under 1.5

44%

Over 2.5

27%

Under 2.5

73%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • Sarmiento currently score more frequently with an average of 2.0 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.2
  • Estudiantes dominated recent matches with an average of 58% possession and 5.0 shots on target
  • Sarmiento played counter-oriented recently with an average of 43% possession and 4.2 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
  • Low probability of a high-scoring game (only 28% for over 2.5 goals)
  • Estudiantes failed to score in 10 matches this season
Overview

Sarmiento (11th place, 19 points) host Estudiantes (1st place, 31 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 23, 2026, 5:45 PM

Estudiantes travel as league leaders, Sarmiento aim to build on home form

Form

Sarmiento show an upward trend with three consecutive wins (LLWWW)

Hosts' summary: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses

Estudiantes stabilized with a win after a weaker phase (LWLLW)

Away team's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sarmiento average 1.1 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match

At home, Sarmiento are defensively stable conceding just 0.71 goals

Estudiantes concede an extremely low average of 0.59 goals

The visitors have kept 11 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

Balanced history with one win each in 2 head-to-head matches

The last encounter on February 20, 2026 ended 1-0 for Estudiantes

Goal ratio is 2-1 in favor of Sarmiento

Key Players

Junior Marabel is Sarmiento's top scorer with 10 goals and 3 assists

JuliĂĄn Mavilla contributed 2 goals in 4 appearances for the hosts

Alexis Castro shapes the visitors' midfield with 4 goals this season

Not selected: Tiago Palacios (4 goals / 3 assists), JoaquĂ­n Tobio Burgos (1 goal / 3 assists), Guido Carrillo (2 goals / 2 assists), GastĂłn Benedetti (0 goals / 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Thyago Ayala guards Sarmiento's goal with a strong rating of 7.41

Fernando Muslera plays reliably in goal for the visitors with 15 matches

Sarmiento record 6 clean sheets, while Estudiantes hold 11 clean sheets

Influences

Estadio Eva PerĂłn de JunĂ­n averages 2.8 total goals per match

Sarmiento count on their defensive home advantage

The match is played on natural grass

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