Match report →
Talleres Córdoba – Rosario Central2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Talleres Córdoba
1.17
Total xG
2.16
Rosario Central
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Talleres Córdoba | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Ronaldo Martínez on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alexandro Maidana on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jáminton Campaz on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Julián Fernández on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form discrepancy: Rosario Central secured 3 wins from their last 5 matches, while Talleres Córdoba suffered 4 defeats in the same period
- Tactical offense: Talleres Córdoba averaged 6.0 shots on target per match in recent games compared to only 2.8 for Rosario Central
- Squad impact: The hosts are weakened by the absence of non-selected regulars Ronaldo Martínez (4 goals) and Alexandro Maidana (2 goals)
Risks
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
- Stagnating offensive threat: Rosario Central's goal production has stalled recently according to the dataset compared to their season average
All probabilities
Result
Talleres Córdoba38%
Draw33%
Rosario Central29%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Double chance
Talleres Córdoba or draw71%
Rosario Central or draw62%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Talleres Córdoba with Giovanni Baroni: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Rosario Central with Jáminton Campaz: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Talleres Córdoba: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Rosario Central: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Talleres Córdoba: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Talleres Córdoba 4-2-3-1 · Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
Talleres Córdoba
- 32 L. Unsain
- 20 A. Schott
- 44 S. Fernández
- 13 V. Fascendini
- 23 G. Báez Corradi
- 2 T. Chamorro
- 5 M. Galarza
- 37 R. Lima Morais
- 19 F. Cristaldo
- 11 V. Depietri
- 9 A. Álvarez Martínez
Rosario Central
- 23 J. Ledesma
- 32 E. Coronel
- 46 I. Ovando
- 13 G. Ávila
- 33 A. Soto
- 5 F. Ibarra
- 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 88 A. Rodríguez Guaglianoni
- 11 Á. Di María Hernández
- 26 G. Cantizano
- 22 E. Copetti
Substitutes
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
- 8 F. Fattori Mouzo
- 49 V. Dávila
- 12 J. Florentín
- 3 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 36 E. Chiavassa
- 1 S. Barbi
- 10 G. Baroni
- 4 M. Catalán
- 39 L. Fabián Ortiz
- 25 T. Baroni
- 31 B. Trey
- 10 F. Cervi
- 8 J. Campaz
- 3 A. Sández
- 1 A. Werner
- 28 G. Fernández
- 9 M. Ruben Rodríguez
- 31 F. Navarro
- 18 J. Fernández
- 15 F. Mallo Blanco
- 42 E. Verón
- 16 T. Badaloni
- 2 S. Zaracho
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →