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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Newell's Old Boys - Banfield

08/23/2026, 12:00 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Newell's Old Boys
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Banfield
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

12%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
NOBBAN

Newell's Old Boys

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.04

Banfield

Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.36
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.09
Tiziano Perrota not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
David Zalazar not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Bruno SepĂșlveda on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
67% of goal output missing (only 66% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Newell's Old Boys: 95% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Banfield with Federico Anselmo: 0 goals/game. Without: 1.8 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Newell's Old Boys: 91% of all goals in the second half (10 of 11, last 8 games)

  • 5
    Newell's Old Boys: 45% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 11)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

34%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Visitor disadvantage: Banfield's lineup is heavily weakened with only 66% of their seasonal goal production available, missing key players like Tiziano Perrota
  • Historical dominance: Banfield has won all of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Newell's with a goal difference of 10:1
  • Model advantage: The statistical prediction estimates a 70% probability for a home win or draw
Risk Factors
  • Severe lineup issues for Banfield: Tiziano Perrota, David Zalazar, and Bruno SepĂșlveda are missing, leaving only 66% of the seasonal goal threat available
  • Low offensive efficiency: Newell's averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Away defensive struggles: Banfield concedes an average of 1.75 goals per away match
Overview

Newell's Old Boys host Banfield at the Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 23, 2026, 2:00 AM

A lower-table clash with Newell's in 14th place and Banfield in 12th place

Form

Both teams share an identical record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Stable form curves with Newell's at WLDLW and Banfield at LWDLW

Newell's shows a positive recent trend with 1.2 goals scored per game

Statistics

Newell's scores an average of 1.00 goal and concedes 1.09 at home

Banfield struggles defensively on the road with 1.75 goals conceded per away match

Low scoring expected with only a 34.6% model probability for over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

Banfield completely dominates the history with 4 wins in 4 matches

Goal difference of 10:1 in favor of the visitors in these direct duels

The last meeting ended in a clear 3-0 victory for Banfield

Key Players

Walter Mazzantti leads the home attack with a strong season rating of 7.03

Facundo Guch contributes to Newell's attack with 2 goals and 3 assists this season

Alexander Machado has scored 1 goal in his single season appearance for Banfield

Goalkeepers

Josué Reinatti has 4 clean sheets for the hosts with an impressive rating of 7.15

Gino Santilli starts for Banfield after only one season appearance rating of 6.75

Influences

Home advantage on the grass pitch of Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Venue history indicates a low-scoring average of 1.8 goals per match

The model predicts a 70% probability for a home win or draw

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