Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Atlético Tucumán - Instituto
08/22/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
2.4
1.5
1:1
14%0:1
12%0:0
11%0:2
11%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Atlético Tucumán
Instituto
League
The Lab
- 1Instituto: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Instituto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 3Atlético Tucumán: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- 4Atlético Tucumán: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 5Instituto with Matías Fonseca: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
20%
Draw
29%
Away Win
50%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
50%
Away or Draw
80%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Form advantage for the visitors: The model calculates a 50% probability for an away win, supported by Instituto's current 4-game winning streak
- Tactical superiority: Instituto averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Tucumán's average of 3.0 shots on target
- Offensive quality: Instituto registered a significantly higher expected goals value (1.80 xG) in recent games compared to Tucumán (0,83 xG)
Risk Factors
- Leandro Díaz, Maximiliano Villa missing, only 66% of seasonal goal threat available
- Low-scoring environment: The Estadio Monumental averages just 1.2 goals per game, which could lead to a slow and defensive match
Overview
Atlético Tucumán (13th place, 14 points) host Instituto (9th place, 21 points) at the Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro
Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 22, 2026, 8:00 PM
Instituto aim to move up the table while Tucumán urgently need points
Form
Atlético Tucumán shows inconsistent form with "DWDLW" (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)
Most recently, they won 1-0 away at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
Instituto travel in great form: "LWWWW" (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss)
The visitors are on a 4-game winning streak, recently beating Central Cordoba SdE 1-0
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Atlético Tucumán scores an average of 0.9 goals and concedes 1.05 goals per game
At home, they have scored 9 goals and conceded 8 in 10 matches
Instituto averages 1.05 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game
Away from home, the visitors have an 8-10 goal record in 8 matches
Tucumán's home ground averages a low 1.2 total goals per match
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, both teams have won 2 games each with no draws
The overall goal record is 5-6 against Tucumán
Their last meeting on February 20, 2026, ended in a 2-1 home win for Instituto
Key Players
For Atlético Tucumán, Clever Ferreira (defender, 2 goals, 1 assist), Luciano Andrés Vallejo (defender, 1 goal), and Renzo Tesuri (midfielder, 2 goals, 1 assist) stand out
For Instituto, Alex Luna (midfielder, 6 goals, 1 assist), Diego Sosa (defender, 1 goal, 4 assists), and Giuliano Cerato (defender, 3 goals, 1 assist) are key
Goalkeepers
Luis Ingolotti starts in goal for Tucumán with 5 clean sheets this season
Marcos Ledesma plays for Instituto, who have kept 7 clean sheets overall this season
Influences
Tucumán's home advantage is backed by 9 goals scored and 8 conceded at the Estadio Monumental
The stadium has a defensive profile with an average of just 1.2 goals per game
The match will be played on natural grass