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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Independiente - Independiente Rivadavia

08/22/2026, 09:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Independiente
1.1
Total xG
2.2
Independiente Rivadavia
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

10%

1:0

10%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
INDIR

Independiente

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
MatĂ­as Abaldo on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Maximiliano Gutiérrez on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

Independiente Rivadavia

Attack strength (1.27x league average)
+0.36
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.15
Fabrizio Sartori not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists)
Alejo Osella not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
Gonzalo RĂ­os not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 77% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Independiente Rivadavia with IvĂĄn Villalba: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Independiente: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Independiente Rivadavia: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

32%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Balanced mathematical predictions with a 33% home win and a 35% away win probability
  • Independiente Rivadavia recently dominated possession with an average of 56.2% and averaged 4.4 shots on target
  • Independiente's strong home defense with only 0.91 goals conceded per home game meets a highly productive away attack averaging 1.57 goals
Risk Factors
  • According to data analysis, both teams' goal production has recently stalled compared to their season averages
  • Independiente Rivadavia play with only 78% of their usual starting lineup strength, missing the injured or non-selected Fabrizio Sartori and Alejo Osella
Overview

Independiente host Independiente Rivadavia

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 22, 2026, 11:30 PM

Table leaders Independiente Rivadavia with 34 points travel to fifth-placed Independiente with 24 points

A crucial clash in the upper half of the table

Form

Independiente show a form of WWLLW with 3 wins and 2 losses

Most recently they secured a 3-1 win against LanĂșs

Independiente Rivadavia show a form of DWLWL with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Most recently they suffered a 0-2 defeat against Belgrano

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Independiente score an average of 1.41 goals and concede 1.18 goals per game this season

In home matches their average is 1.45 goals scored and 0.91 conceded

Independiente Rivadavia score an average of 1.59 goals and concede 1.05 goals

On the road the visitors score an average of 1.57 goals while conceding 1.29

Independiente's home record shows 4 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches

Independiente Rivadavia lead the record with 2 wins to 0 wins and 1 draw

The last encounter on February 21, 2026, ended 3-2 in favor of Independiente Rivadavia

The overall goals stand at 5-3 in favor of Independiente Rivadavia

Key Players

Gabriel Ávalos scored 11 goals and provided 5 assists in 22 matches with an average rating of 7.34

Santiago Montiel scored 2 goals and recorded 2 assists in his last 5 matches with a rating of 7.71

Lautaro MillĂĄn scored 2 goals in his last 3 matches

Álex Arce scored 3 goals in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.46

MatĂ­as FernĂĄndez scored 1 goal and made 3 assists in his last 4 games with a rating of 7.43

José Florentín recorded 4 goals in 21 appearances with a rating of 7.13

Goalkeepers

Rodrigo Rey is in goal for Independiente, recording 6 clean sheets and a season average rating of 6.82

NicolĂĄs Bolcato guards the net for Independiente Rivadavia with 5 clean sheets and a rating of 6.81

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Libertadores de América

Independiente's home record shows a solid output with 16 goals scored in 11 matches in front of their home crowd

In the 5 home games played so far, there has been an average of 2.0 goals per match

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