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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - San Lorenzo

08/21/2026, 11:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.8
Total xG
1.8
San Lorenzo
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

19%

1:1

15%

0:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:2

7%
What influences the xG?
EDRCSL

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.49
Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.38
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap)
-0.07
Rising form (0.5 vs 0.4 season average)
+0.03
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
+0.00
14% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Strong home record (0.8 vs 0.4 goals/match)

San Lorenzo

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.4 vs 1 season average)
-0.18
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap)
+0.04
Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.01
Facundo Gulli not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
M. de Ritis on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    San Lorenzo: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with Raúl Lozano: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    San Lorenzo with Matías Reali: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

37%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

55%

Under 1.5

45%

Over 2.5

26%

Under 2.5

74%

Over 3.5

10%

Under 3.5

90%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

63%

Both Score

Yes

36%

No

64%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 71% probability of a draw or away win for San Lorenzo
  • San Lorenzo averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to just 2.0 for the hosts
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto suffer from an extreme goal drought failing to score in 15 of 21 games this season
Risk Factors
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto average only 0.33 goals per home game
  • San Lorenzo have to cope without the non-nominated Facundo Gulli and M. de Ritis
  • The model predicts a low-scoring match with only a 26% probability of over 2.5 goals
Overview

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto host San Lorenzo

Match on August 21, 2026, 11:00 PM at Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto

Clash between the 15th-placed side with 5 points and the 7th-placed team with 22 points

San Lorenzo travels as the clear favorite against the bottom side

Form

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto show form WLDLL with 1 win and 3 losses

The home team's trend is positive as they currently score more frequently

San Lorenzo arrive with form LWLLW and 2 wins from their last 5 games

The away side shows a negative trend as their goal production has stalled

Statistics

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scored an average of 0.33 goals per game this season

The home side failed to score in 15 out of 21 games this season

San Lorenzo concede an average of just 0.91 goals per game

The visitors have already kept 11 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams

This single encounter was won by San Lorenzo

The last match ended in a 2-0 win for San Lorenzo on February 22, 2026

The historical goal record stands at 2-0 in favor of the visitors

Key Players

Gabriel Alanís is a key midfielder for the hosts with 2 goals and a 6.76 rating

Sergio Ojeda stabilizes the hosts' defense with 1 goal and a 6.75 rating

Rodrigo Auzmendi is the visitors' biggest threat with 6 goals and a 6.91 rating

Alexis Cuello has contributed 4 goals and 3 assists for San Lorenzo so far

Goalkeepers

Lucas Bruera starts in goal for the hosts, maintaining a consistent season rating of 6.94

José Devecchi occupies the visitors' goal with an average rating of 6.61

The goalkeepers show different statistical performances in the ongoing season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto

The stadium historically averages 1.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in only 20% of the last 5 home games

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