Match report →
Defensa y Justicia – Platense1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Defensa y Justicia
1.25
Total xG
2.46
Platense
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Defensa y Justicia | Platense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.49 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Franco Zapiola on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Franco Zapiola is not nominated for Platense, reducing the visitors' offensive strength
- Defensa y Justicia averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
- The model predicts a tight match with expected goals of 1.25 for the home side and 1.21 for the visitors
Risks
- Platense scores an average of only 0.77 goals per game this season
- Defensa y Justicia concedes an average of 1.32 goals per match
- Restricted data availability regarding total duels in the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Defensa y Justicia36%
Draw31%
Platense34%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Double chance
Defensa y Justicia or draw66%
Platense or draw64%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
10%
1:0
9%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Platense: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
- Platense: 4 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Platense: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 10 total)
- Platense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Defensa y Justicia 4-1-4-1 · Platense 4-4-2
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 29 D. Fernández
- 21 H. Martínez
- 3 F. Román Villalba
- 15 S. Sosa Yung
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
- 19 D. Barbona
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 11 T. Perrotta
- 9 L. Fernández
Platense
- 30 J. Cozzani
- 4 A. Lagos
- 13 I. Vázquez
- 31 V. Cuesta
- 3 T. Silva
- 7 G. Mainero
- 26 P. Ferreira
- 24 M. Barrios Santos
- 16 G. Togni
- 11 N. López Alonso
- 43 N. Retamar
Substitutes
- 26 J. Lucco
- 36 L. Amade
- 17 A. Hausch
- 16 A. Portillo
- 25 F. Altamira
- 2 E. Lucero
- 7 T. Pérez
- 30 D. Domínguez
- 22 M. Porcel
- 27 D. Blanco
- 6 E. Burdin Márquez
- 45 T. Martínez
- 33 J. Gauto
- 22 N. Sumavil
- 23 L. Heredia
- 34 M. Mendia
- 27 S. Dalmasso
- 18 B. Merlini
- 99 G. Lencina
- 29 F. Minerva
- 10 F. Zapiola
- 5 I. Gómez
- 6 E. Raggio
- 25 J. Saborido
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