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Tigre – Barracas Central0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Tigre
1.19
Total xG
1.90
Barracas Central
0.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tigre | Barracas Central |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.32 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Gonzalo Martínez not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Rodrigo Insúa on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form contrast: Tigre are unbeaten in 5 matches (WDWDW) while Barracas Central suffered 3 consecutive defeats
- Offensive upswing: Tigre are currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.3) according to advanced stats
- Reduced visitor goal threat: Without the unselected Rodrigo Insúa, Barracas Central miss key offensive contributions (3 goals, 1 assist)
Risks
- Historical H2H disadvantage: Tigre have failed to win any of the previous 4 encounters against Barracas Central
- Few offensive actions expected: Tigre averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Low scoring probability: The mathematical model estimates the probability of over 2.5 goals at just 30%
All probabilities
Result
Tigre46%
Draw34%
Barracas Central20%
Goals
Over 1.558%
Under 1.542%
Over 2.530%
Under 2.570%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Double chance
Tigre or draw80%
Barracas Central or draw54%
No draw66%
Both teams score
Yes37%
No63%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:0
16%
1:1
14%
2:0
11%
0:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Barracas Central: 44% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (4 of 9)
Lineups
Tigre 4-4-2 · Barracas Central 5-3-2
Tigre
- 12 F. Zenobio
- 4 V. Moreno
- 20 A. Barrionuevo
- 32 J. Villalba
- 3 N. Banegas
- 10 J. Saralegui
- 8 M. Garay
- 27 S. González
- 22 S. López Grobin
- 33 M. Méndez Acosta
- 29 I. Russo Cordero
Barracas Central
- 30 M. Miño
- 4 D. Martínez
- 14 K. Jappert
- 15 Y. Rak Barragán
- 31 N. Demartini
- 17 E. Pereyra
- 8 T. Porra
- 5 D. Miloc
- 10 I. Tapia
- 77 F. Bruera
- 11 N. Briasco Belekyan
Substitutes
- 5 B. Leyes Sosa
- 21 S. Medina
- 19 A. Oviedo Álvarez
- 11 T. Serrago
- 24 F. Álvarez
- 30 J. Elías
- 25 I. Subiabre
- 50 I. Peluffo
- 23 G. Requena
- 72 M. Rivas Rojas
- 40 L. Minniti
- 26 L. Morales
- 1 J. Espínola González
- 35 E. Rolón
- 6 R. Insúa
- 37 G. Campi
- 28 R. Bogarín Giménez
- 33 G. Maroni
- 24 E. Taborda
- 20 J. Candia Hernández
- 2 N. Capraro
- 13 R. Barrios
- 16 I. Guaraz
- 7 J. Barbieri
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