Match report â
Independiente â Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Independiente
1.36
Total xG
2.16
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Independiente | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | â0.41 | â0.41 |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.38 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | â0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | â0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap) | â0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Gabriel Ăvalos not in squad (11 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| MatĂas Abaldo on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Santiago Arias not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 53% of goal output missing (only 53% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 54% of goal threat available, without Gabriel Ăvalos, MatĂas Abaldo, Santiago Arias
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scores more frequently at the moment (1.6) than their season average (1.1)
- The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 48%
Risks
- Independiente averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
- Independiente's goal production is currently stalling with an average of 1.0 goal compared to the season average (1.4)
All probabilities
Result
Independiente48%
Draw31%
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza20%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Double chance
Independiente or draw80%
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza or draw52%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
14%
0:0
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Independiente: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
Lineups
Independiente 4-3-3 · Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 4-2-3-1
Independiente
- 33 R. Rey
- 29 L. Godoy
- 26 K. LomĂłnaco
- 35 J. Arrayago
- 22 F. Zavala
- 14 G. MillĂĄn
- 23 I. Marcone
- 7 S. Montiel
- 28 M. Gutiérrez
- 34 F.Tempone
- 24 J. Palais
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- 23 C. Rigamonti
- 32 L. Paredes
- 2 D. Mondino
- 4 E. Muñoz
- 3 M. Recalde
- 21 F. Antonini
- 28 T. O'Connor
- 26 F. Lencioni
- 30 E. FernĂĄndez
- 7 L. Cingolani
- 9 A. MĂłdica
Substitutes
- 6 L. Ăvila
- 77 S. Mele Castanero
- 10 L. Cabral
- 19 M. Abaldo Menyou
- 16 M. Curci
- 13 J. Fedorco
- 8 M. Meza
- 32 R. MartĂnez
- 20 F. Cruz
- 2 F. CalderĂłn
- 39 R. Martino
- 40 J. VelĂĄrdez
- 8 M. Vargas MartĂn
- 11 S. RodrĂguez
- 35 V. Simoni
- 19 J. Ceballos
- 15 U. SĂĄnchez
- 36 I. Cortez
- 33 O. Andrada
- 17 I. Sabatini Charparin
- 5 N. Barboza
- 42 L. Carrera
- 31 L. Petruchi
- 16 G. Guiffrey
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