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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Independiente - Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

08/30/2026, 10:15 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Independiente
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
INDGYEM

Independiente

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Gabriel Ávalos not in squad (11 goals, 5 assists)
MatĂ­as Abaldo on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Santiago Arias not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
53% of goal output missing (only 53% available)

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.38
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.05
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 2
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

  • 3
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Independiente: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

31%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Only 54% of goal threat available, without Gabriel Ávalos, MatĂ­as Abaldo, Santiago Arias
  • Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scores more frequently at the moment (1.6) than their season average (1.1)
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 48%
Risk Factors
  • Independiente averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
  • Independiente's goal production is currently stalling with an average of 1.0 goal compared to the season average (1.4)
Overview

Independiente hosts Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on August 30, 2026, 10:15 PM

The 5th-placed team faces the 11th-placed side

Independiente aims to stay close to the top with 24 points

Gimnasia travels with 19 points

Form

Independiente enters with form WLLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Most recently they recorded a scoreless draw against Independiente Rivadavia

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza shows a form curve of LWLWW

The visitors travel with two consecutive wins

Statistics

Independiente scores an average of 1.35 goals and concedes 1.13 this season

At home, their defense is solid, conceding only 0.83 goals per game

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza averages 1.00 goals scored per away match

However, the visitors concede an average of 2.25 goals on the road

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between the teams

This single encounter ended in a draw

The last game on February 25, 2026, ended 1:1

The historical record is completely balanced

Key Players

Santiago Montiel impresses with a season average of 6.97 and rising form

Lautaro MillĂĄn scored two goals in recent matches with a rating of 7.36

AgustĂ­n MĂłdica has 12 goals this season and scored seven times in his last five games

Goalkeepers

Rodrigo Rey played 23 season games with an average rating of 6.84

Cesar Rigamonti has 20 appearances and impresses with a rating of 7.04

Cesar Rigamonti showed a rising form trend with a rating of 7.39 recently

Influences

Independiente benefits from home advantage at the Estadio Libertadores de América

In the last 5 home games, an average of only 1.4 goals were scored

The match will be played on a grass surface

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