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Huracán – Estudiantes de Río Cuarto1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Huracán
1.77
Total xG
2.46
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Huracán | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.77 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Jordy Caicedo not in squad (11 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Leonardo Gil on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 57% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact for Huracán: Only 57% of usual goal threat is active due to the absence of Jordy Caicedo and Leonardo Gil
- Tactical dominance: Huracán averaged 63% possession recently, while the visitors managed only 2.0 shots on target per match
- Defensive discrepancy: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto concede an average of 3.17 goals per away game
Risks
- Stagnant offense: Huracán's goal production stands at 1.0 in recent form, below their season average of 1.3
- Lack of precision: Huracán averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Huracán62%
Draw25%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto13%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Double chance
Huracán or draw87%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw38%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
2:0
13%
1:1
12%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: opponent scores first in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Huracán: 3.1 cards per game (31 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
- Huracán: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Huracán 4-3-3 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 3-1-4-2
Huracán
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 2 L. Blondel
- 21 H. Nervo
- 35 M. Palazzo
- 25 C. Ibáñez
- 41 L. Mora
- 5 R. Fernández Cedrés
- 15 F. Waller Martiarena
- 17 J. Bisanz
- 23 I. Pussetto
- 7 O. Cortés Cortés
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- 1 L. Bruera
- 2 G. Maffini
- 30 S. Ojeda
- 31 M. Valenti
- 5 A. Cabrera
- 14 G. Gonzalez
- 19 N. Talpone
- 17 G. Alanís
- 23 F. Rodríguez
- 22 M. Valiente
- 77 I. Hesar
Substitutes
- 8 L. Gil
- 11 T. Peralta Ortiz
- 10 Ó. Romero Villamayor
- 34 I. Campo
- 24 F. Kalinger di Napoli
- 32 S. Meza
- 6 F. Pereyra
- 19 L. Lescano
- 49 T. Natanael Uribe Sanders
- 46 F. Martínez
- 48 S. Raynelli
- 51 M. Soto
- 40 F. Lo Celso
- 29 A. Quiroga
- 6 J. Antonini
- 8 S. Rosane
- 43 A. Lastra
- 28 F. Cobos
- 13 F. Romero
- 45 R. Lozano
- 11 M. Garnerone
- 27 J. Garro
- 18 J. Rivero
- 99 J. Chala Castillo
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