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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Atlético Tucumán - Belgrano

08/30/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Atlético Tucumán
1.1
Total xG
2.2
Belgrano
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

10%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
ATBEL

Atlético Tucumán

4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap)
-0.10
Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
+0.03
Maximiliano Villa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Belgrano

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap)
+0.04
Lucas Passerini  on the bench (1 goals, 7 assists)
Lucas Zelarayán  not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgrano: 7 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Belgrano: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 3
    Belgrano: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against River Plate: 2 goals (85', 88')

  • 4
    Belgrano with Francisco González Metilli starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (10/8 games, last 26)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

32%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Historical dominance: Belgrano won both head-to-head meetings with a 7-3 goal aggregate
  • Tactical edge: Belgrano averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Atlético Tucumán's 3.4
  • Form divergence: Atlético Tucumán has a positive trend whereas Belgrano's recent form is negative
Risk Factors
  • Defensive blow: G. Suso is missing for Atlético Tucumán due to a cruciate ligament tear
  • Low scoring venue: Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro averages just 1.0 goals per game recently
  • Missing key assets: Lucas Passerini and Lucas Zelarayán are not in the lineup for Belgrano
Overview

Atlético Tucumán (13th place, 14 points) hosts Belgrano (5th place, 26 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol on August 30, 2026, 2:30 AM

A highly balanced clash at the Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Form

Atlético Tucumán shows a rising trend with a form of WDLWD

The home side is unbeaten in their last two matches after a 0-0 draw against Instituto

Belgrano approaches with a form of LDWWL after a loss in their last game

The visitors show a slightly declining form trend according to recent statistics

Statistics

Atlético Tucumán averages 0.9 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded at home

The home team kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches at their own stadium

Belgrano averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded on their travels

The visitors have recorded 13 clean sheets overall this season

Head-to-Head

Belgrano dominates the historical record with 2 wins in 2 matches

The visitors scored 7 goals and conceded 3 in these meetings

The last head-to-head match on February 25, 2026, ended in a 3-1 win for Belgrano

Key Players

Leandro Díaz with 7 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.01

Clever Ferreira with 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.15

Luciano Andrés Vallejo with 1 goal with a rating of 6.84

Nicolás Fernández with 5 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 6.82

Francisco González Metilli with 4 goals with a rating of 6.99

Lisandro López with 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 7.25

Goalkeepers

Luis Ingolotti guards the goal for Atlético Tucumán with a rating of 6.76 and 10 clean sheets

Thiago Cardozo is in goal for Belgrano with a rating of 7.08 and 13 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

The stadium historically sees low-scoring matches with an average of 1.0 goals per game

Only one of the last five home matches featured over 2.5 goals

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