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Atlético Tucumán – Belgrano0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Atlético Tucumán
1.09
Total xG
2.23
Belgrano
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético Tucumán | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | +0.03 | |
| Maximiliano Villa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Lucas Passerini on the bench (1 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Lucas Zelarayán not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Historical dominance: Belgrano won both head-to-head meetings with a 7-3 goal aggregate
- Tactical edge: Belgrano averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Atlético Tucumán's 3.4
- Form divergence: Atlético Tucumán has a positive trend whereas Belgrano's recent form is negative
Risks
- Defensive blow: G. Suso is missing for Atlético Tucumán due to a cruciate ligament tear
- Low scoring venue: Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro averages just 1.0 goals per game recently
- Missing key assets: Lucas Passerini and Lucas Zelarayán are not in the lineup for Belgrano
All probabilities
Result
Atlético Tucumán33%
Draw32%
Belgrano35%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Double chance
Atlético Tucumán or draw65%
Belgrano or draw68%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
10%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Belgrano: 7 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Belgrano: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Belgrano: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against River Plate: 2 goals (85', 88')
- Belgrano with Francisco González Metilli starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (10/8 games, last 26)
Lineups
Atlético Tucumán 4-1-4-1 · Belgrano 4-4-1-1
Atlético Tucumán
- 1 L. Ingolotti
- 24 L. Di Plácido
- 26 C. Ferreira Ñamandu
- 36 L. Vallejo
- 21 I. Galván
- 19 L. Vega
- 11 R. Tesuri
- 31 L. Godoy
- 10 F. Nicola Albanell
- 23 N. Laméndola
- 9 L. Díaz
Belgrano
- 25 T. Cardozo Brugman
- 26 A. Benítez Cabrera
- 14 L. Morales
- 17 L. López
- 3 A. Sporle
- 24 E. Rigoni
- 21 A. Sánchez
- 11 F. González Metilli
- 8 R. Hernandes
- 20 F. Vázquez
- 22 N. Fernández
Substitutes
- 3 M. Villa Pereira
- 8 A. Ham
- 30 M. Brondo
- 25 T. Durso
- 22 F. Pimienta
- 32 J. Infante
- 6 G. Ferrari
- 18 R. Ruiz Rodríguez
- 2 L. Paunero
- 14 P. Canelo
- 5 J. Fernández
- 27 R. Granillo González
- 30 G. Zelarayán
- 37 L. Gutierrez
- 9 L. Passerini
- 2 A. Maldonado
- 53 J. Velazquez
- 16 F. Ricca Rostagnol
- 23 M. Vicentini
- 15 R. Tulián
- 4 Agustín Griguol
- 29 M. Ortiz
- 19 S. Gatti
- 58 A. Bono
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