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Unión Santa Fe – Sarmiento4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Unión Santa Fe
1.65
Total xG
2.40
Sarmiento
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Unión Santa Fe | Sarmiento |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.83 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.43 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.28 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Julián Palacios not in squad (3 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Lautaro Vargas not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Sarmiento's glaring away weakness with an average of 2.57 goals conceded per game compared to Unión's solid home defense (0.8 conceded per home game)
- The mathematical model calculates a 57% probability of a home win and expects 1.65 home goals
- Not selected for the hosts: Julián Palacios (3 goals, 8 assists) and Lautaro Vargas (0 goals, 2 assists)
Risks
- Unión Santa Fe's goal production is stalling, averaging 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.6
- Sarmiento is currently scoring more frequently, averaging 2.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.2
- The hosts are missing 60% of their seasonal assists due to squad absences
All probabilities
Result
Unión Santa Fe57%
Draw27%
Sarmiento15%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Unión Santa Fe or draw85%
Sarmiento or draw43%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:0
13%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cristian Tarragona: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Unión Santa Fe: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (11 points lost)
- Sarmiento: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Unión Santa Fe: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Sarmiento: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Unión Santa Fe 4-3-1-2 · Sarmiento 4-4-2
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 2 ?. Rodríguez González
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 22 B. Cuello
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 5 L. Menossi
- 11 M. Luna Diale
- 19 M. Estigarribia
- 25 C. Tarragona
Sarmiento
- 12 T. Ayala
- 8 S. Salle
- 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
- 2 J. Insaurralde
- 3 L. Suárez Scalarea
- 19 J. Contrera
- 15 C. Zabala
- 16 M. Martínez
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 24 J. Herrera
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
Substitutes
- 4 M. Rocha Calderón
- 46 S. Grella
- 31 M. Aguirre
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 12 B. Pittón
- 43 E. Ramírez
- 10 V. Malcorra
- 29 S. Vera
- 44 T. Fagioli
- 34 M. Peresutti
- 38 V. Cerrudo
- 32 N. Fazzi
- 29 T. Santamaría
- 6 G. Arturia
- 77 N. Pasquini
- 7 P. Magnín
- 11 G. González
- 9 D. Churín
- 33 G. Díaz
- 5 M. García
- 20 U. Giménez
- 23 E. Giménez
- 1 I. Arboleda
- 17 A. Nadruz Blanco
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