🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Unión Santa Fe - Sarmiento

08/28/2026, 10:00 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Unión Santa Fe
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Sarmiento
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

13%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
USFSAR

Unión Santa Fe

Attack strength (1.24x league average)
+0.83
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.10
Julián Palacios not in squad (3 goals, 8 assists)
Lautaro Vargas not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Sarmiento

Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.43
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.24
Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.24
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cristian Tarragona: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Unión Santa Fe: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (11 points lost)

  • 3
    Sarmiento: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Unión Santa Fe: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Sarmiento: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

27%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Sarmiento's glaring away weakness with an average of 2.57 goals conceded per game compared to Unión's solid home defense (0.8 conceded per home game)
  • The mathematical model calculates a 57% probability of a home win and expects 1.65 home goals
  • Not selected for the hosts: Julián Palacios (3 goals, 8 assists) and Lautaro Vargas (0 goals, 2 assists)
Risk Factors
  • Unión Santa Fe's goal production is stalling, averaging 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.6
  • Sarmiento is currently scoring more frequently, averaging 2.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.2
  • The hosts are missing 60% of their seasonal assists due to squad absences
Overview

Unión Santa Fe (8th place, 21 points) hosts Sarmiento (11th place, 19 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match at Estadio 15 de Abril on August 28, 2026, 10:00 PM

A tight mid-table clash is expected

Form

Unión Santa Fe has a mixed form with LWLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five matches

Sarmiento travels with strong momentum, winning four of their last five games (LWWWW)

The hosts have struggled recently, whereas the visitors' trend is pointing upwards

Statistics

Unión Santa Fe averages 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded at home

Sarmiento has major defensive issues away, conceding an average of 2.57 goals per away game

Unión's solid home record faces Sarmiento's vulnerable away defense

Head-to-Head

Balanced head-to-head history with one victory for each side in 2 direct encounters

The last direct meeting ended in a 3:1 victory

There has been no draw in the recent meetings between these teams

Key Players

Cristian Tarragona is the hosts' top threat with 11 goals this season

Lucas Menossi has been in good form with 3 goals in his last 5 matches for the home side

Junior Marabel leads Sarmiento's attack with 10 goals and 4 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Matías Mansilla played 24 matches for Unión Santa Fe this season, keeping 5 clean sheets

Thyago Ayala has 4 appearances for Sarmiento with a strong average rating of 7.64

Influences

Solid home advantage for Unión Santa Fe at Estadio 15 de Abril

The venue averages 2.4 total goals per game

Natural grass pitch provides familiar conditions for both teams

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.