Match report â
Banfield â River Plate2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Banfield
1.02
Total xG
2.67
River Plate
1.64
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Banfield | River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.48x league average) | +1.07 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | â0.43 | â0.43 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | â0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | â0.16 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap) | â0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | â0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | â0.03 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Tiziano Perrota not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| David Zalazar not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 60% of goal output missing (only 67% available) | ||
| AnĂbal Moreno on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| JoaquĂn Freitas on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Visitors as favorites: The mathematical analysis sees River Plate with a 50% probability of winning
- Tactical dominance: River Plate controlled play in past matches with an average of 61% possession
- Dangerous counters: Banfield averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Weakened home attack: Tiziano Perrota and David Zalazar are missing, leaving only 68% of the seasonal goal threat available
- Struggling visitors' offense: River Plate's goal production has stalled at an average of 0.8 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.32
All probabilities
Result
Banfield22%
Draw28%
River Plate50%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Double chance
Banfield or draw50%
River Plate or draw78%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
10%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
1:3
5%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- River Plate: 6 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- River Plate with SebastiĂĄn Driussi starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/10 games, last 26)
- Banfield: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)
Lineups
Banfield 4-1-3-2 · River Plate 4-2-3-1
Banfield
- 50 D. RodrĂguez
- 24 S. LĂłpez Garcia
- 37 R. Malanca
- 6 N. Meriano
- 27 L. Abraham
- 13 B. Zacarias Oviedo
- 18 F. Medina
- 35 I. Pais MayĂĄn
- 20 T. AdoryĂĄn
- 28 M. HernĂĄndez
- 22 A. Machado Aycaguer
River Plate
- 41 S. BeltrĂĄn
- 29 G. Montiel
- 28 L. MartĂnez Quarta
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 21 M. Acuña
- 15 F. Vera
- 50 T. Andrada
- 23 T. Almada
- 10 Ă. Correa MartĂnez
- 26 T. GalvĂĄn
- 9 S. Driussi
Substitutes
- 40 D. Zalazar
- 30 F. Anselmo
- 11 F. Ălvarez
- 34 S. Daniele
- 10 L. GĂłmez
- 7 L. Piñero
- 9 B. SepĂșlveda
- 25 G. Santilli
- 5 S. Esquivel
- 4 J. Alfaro
- 19 L. Cano
- 70 J. Arteaga Arboleda
- 18 L. BeltrĂĄn
- 8 M. Arambarri Rosa
- 3 F. Ortega
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 24 J. Meza
- 33 E. CenturiĂłn
- 35 J. Freitas
- 44 L.Silva
- 20 G. GonzĂĄlez Apud
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