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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Banfield - River Plate

08/30/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Banfield
1.0
Total xG
2.7
River Plate
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

1:3

5%
What influences the xG?
BANRP

Banfield

Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.11
Attack strength (1.31x league average)
-0.05
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.03
Tiziano Perrota not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
David Zalazar not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 67% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match)

River Plate

Attack strength (1.48x league average)
+1.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.16
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.08
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.02
AnĂ­bal Moreno on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
JoaquĂ­n Freitas on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    River Plate: 6 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    River Plate with SebastiĂĄn Driussi starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/10 games, last 26)

  • 3
    Banfield: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

28%

Away Win

50%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

50%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Visitors as favorites: The mathematical analysis sees River Plate with a 50% probability of winning
  • Tactical dominance: River Plate controlled play in past matches with an average of 61% possession
  • Dangerous counters: Banfield averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Weakened home attack: Tiziano Perrota and David Zalazar are missing, leaving only 68% of the seasonal goal threat available
  • Struggling visitors' offense: River Plate's goal production has stalled at an average of 0.8 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.32
Overview

Banfield hosts River Plate at Estadio Florencio Sola

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on August 30, 2026, 6:00 PM

Clash between the 12th-placed team and the 2nd-placed team

River Plate is the favorite with 29 points against Banfield with 18 points

Form

Form history Banfield: WDLWL

Banfield recently recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Form history River Plate: LLLWD

River Plate recently recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Banfield scores an average of 1.0 goals per game and concedes 1.18 goals

River Plate scores an average of 1.27 goals per game and concedes 0.88 goals

Banfield scored more recently with 1.3 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.1

River Plate's goal production has stalled at 0.8 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.32

Banfield kept 6 clean sheets this season while River Plate kept 10 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in the database

River Plate won both previous games

Goal ratio of 6:2 in favor of River Plate

The last encounter ended 3:1 for River Plate on February 26, 2026

Key Players

Santiago LĂłpez GarcĂ­a scored 2 goals and provided 4 assists in 22 appearances

Alexander Machado has scored 1 goal in 2 season appearances with a 7.14 rating

SebastiĂĄn Driussi scored 5 goals in 16 appearances for River Plate

Goalkeepers

Santiago BeltrĂĄn guards the goal for the visitors with 26 appearances this season

The home goalkeeper is Aleksandr Petrosyan

Santiago BeltrĂĄn has already kept 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

Banfield scored 13 goals and conceded 10 in 13 home matches

River Plate scored 8 goals and conceded 6 in 6 away matches

The venue averages 2.2 total goals per match

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