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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Estudiantes - Newell's Old Boys

08/31/2026, 10:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Estudiantes
1.4
Total xG
2.1
Newell's Old Boys
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

1:1

14%

0:0

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ESTNOB

Estudiantes

Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Tiago Palacios not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Alexis Castro not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
Fabricio PĂ©rez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
TomĂĄs Palacios on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Eric Meza not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
46% of goal output missing (only 70% available)

Newell's Old Boys

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.09
Ignacio RamĂ­rez on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Jeronimo Russo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 11 total)

  • 2
    Newell's Old Boys with Walter Mazzantti starting: 1.3 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (13/8 games, last 22)

  • 3
    Newell's Old Boys: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Newell's Old Boys: 47% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 15)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

31%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Table leadership and home strength: Estudiantes leads the league and has conceded only 7 goals in 16 home matches
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 49% home win probability with 1.36 expected goals
  • Offensive dominance: Estudiantes averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to 3.2 for the visitors
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability on the road: Newell's Old Boys concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away match
  • Low offensive threat: The visitors averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Inconsistent form for Estudiantes: The hosts lost 3 of their last 5 matches (WLLWL)
Overview

Estudiantes (1st place, 31 points) hosts Newell's Old Boys (14th place, 15 points) at the Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 31, 2026, 10:00 PM

The hosts enter the game as the clear favorites

Form

Estudiantes with a form of WLLWL (2 wins, 3 losses)

Their last result was a 0-2 loss against Sarmiento

Newell's Old Boys shows a form trend of LDLWW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

The visitors travel with two consecutive wins

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Estudiantes averages 1.13 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.65 goals

Newell's Old Boys averages 1.05 goals scored and concedes 1.5 goals per match

Estudiantes kept 11 clean sheets so far this season

Away from home, the visitors struggle with an average of 2.0 goals conceded per game

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

No wins for Newell's Old Boys, 2 draws and 2 wins for Estudiantes

The last meeting ended 2-0 for Estudiantes on February 25, 2026

Estudiantes scored a total of 8 goals, Newell's Old Boys 3

Key Players

Ezequiel Piovi excels in midfield with a rating of 7.03 and a rising trend

Eros Mancuso brings stability to defense, averaging a 7.17 rating recently

Guido Carrillo leads the attack with 2 goals and 2 assists this season

For the visitors, MatĂ­as CĂłccaro shines upfront with 5 goals and rising form

Facundo Guch orchestrates midfield with 2 goals, 4 assists, and a 6.88 rating

Walter Mazzantti strengthens the offense with 2 goals and 2 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Fernando Muslera has played 16 matches in goal for Estudiantes this season, maintaining an average rating of 7.21

On the other side, Josué Reinatti guards the net for Newell's Old Boys, recording a 7.17 rating across 11 appearances

Estudiantes holds a much more stable defensive record with 11 clean sheets compared to the visitors (4 clean sheets)

Influences

Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes is known for high-scoring matches, averaging 3.5 goals per game

Estudiantes shows a strong home record, conceding only 7 goals in 16 home games

Recent matches at this venue registered an Over 2.5 rate of 75%

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