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Estudiantes – Newell's Old Boys0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Estudiantes
1.36
Total xG
2.13
Newell's Old Boys
0.77
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estudiantes | Newell's Old Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Tiago Palacios not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alexis Castro not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Fabricio Pérez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Tomás Palacios on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Eric Meza not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 70% available) | ||
| Ignacio Ramírez on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jeronimo Russo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table leadership and home strength: Estudiantes leads the league and has conceded only 7 goals in 16 home matches
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 49% home win probability with 1.36 expected goals
- Offensive dominance: Estudiantes averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to 3.2 for the visitors
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability on the road: Newell's Old Boys concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away match
- Low offensive threat: The visitors averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Inconsistent form for Estudiantes: The hosts lost 3 of their last 5 matches (WLLWL)
All probabilities
Result
Estudiantes49%
Draw31%
Newell's Old Boys20%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Double chance
Estudiantes or draw80%
Newell's Old Boys or draw51%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
1:1
14%
0:0
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 11 total)
- Newell's Old Boys with Walter Mazzantti starting: 1.3 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (13/8 games, last 22)
- Newell's Old Boys: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Newell's Old Boys: 47% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 15)
Lineups
Estudiantes 4-2-3-1 · Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1
Estudiantes
- 16 N. Muslera Micol
- 40 E. Mancuso
- 4 S. Núñez
- 14 L. González Pírez
- 13 G. Benedetti Taffarel
- 21 L. Piovi
- 8 G. Neves Perdomo
- 31 B. Gallego Rodríguez
- 32 C. Correa
- 17 J. Tobio Burgos
- 9 G. Carrillo
Newell's Old Boys
- 30 J. Reinatti Balansino
- 6 M. Ortega
- 25 B. Cabrera
- 17 L. Gianetti
- 24 F. Escobar
- 26 R. Herrera
- 5 L. Regiardo
- 7 W. Mazzantti
- 20 F. Guch
- 39 L.Rios
- 9 M. Cóccaro Ferreira
Substitutes
- 24 T. Palacios
- 26 J. Funes Mori
- 19 A. Gaich
- 29 F. Pérez Escudero
- 7 J. Sosa
- 27 L. Alario
- 28 B. Aguirre
- 22 A. Castro
- 18 E. Cetré Angulo
- 1 F. Iacovich
- 20 E. Meza
- 52 B. Kociubinski
- 27 L. Gómez
- 19 J. Gómez Mattar
- 22 O. Salomón
- 99 J. Ramírez Polero
- 28 J. Russo
- 21 G. Arias Arroyo
- 10 V. Acuña
- 16 L. Carrizo
- 36 F. Scarpeccio
- 18 M. García
- 15 A. Soñora
- 35 B. Benedetto
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