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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Instituto - San Lorenzo

09/01/2026, 12:15 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Instituto
1.3
Total xG
1.9
San Lorenzo
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

18%

0:0

16%

2:0

13%

1:1

13%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
INSSL

Instituto

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.28
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.01
Alex Luna on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 92% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match)

San Lorenzo

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.56
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average)
-0.15
M. de Ritis not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Instituto: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (4 of 9 total)

  • 2
    Instituto: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 3
    Instituto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 11 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

31%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

58%

Under 1.5

42%

Over 2.5

30%

Under 2.5

70%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

34%

No

66%

Key Factors
  • Excellent home form: Instituto is unbeaten in their last 5 games (WWWWD) and is analyzed as the 54% favorite by the model
  • Tactical dominance: Instituto averaged 5.8 shots on target per game in their recent fixtures
  • Rising attacking trend: Instituto is currently scoring more frequently (1.3 goals per game) compared to their season average
Risk Factors
  • Squad impact: Attacking threat Alex Luna is missing from Instituto's lineup
  • Defensive resilience of the visitors: San Lorenzo concedes just 0.88 goals per away game on average
  • Low-scoring history: The head-to-head record features only 3 goals for each team across 4 games, indicating a tight match
Overview

Instituto (9th place, 21 points) hosts San Lorenzo (7th place, 22 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on September 1, 2026, 2:15 AM

A tight mid-table clash is expected

Form

Instituto is in highly stable form with WWWWD

They recently achieved 4 wins and 1 draw

San Lorenzo enters with form WLLWD

The visitors recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently

Statistics

Instituto has scored an average of 1.0 goal per game so far

The home team concedes just 0.64 goals per game at home on average

San Lorenzo has already kept 12 clean sheets defensively this season

Away from home, the visitors average only 0.75 goals per match

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches so far

San Lorenzo won 2 times, while Instituto won once with 1 draw

The goal difference is balanced at 3:3 goals

The last encounter ended in a 1:1 draw on February 24, 2026

Key Players

Fernando AlarcĂłn is in great form with an average rating of 7.26

MatĂ­as Gallardo impresses in midfield with a rating of 7.18 in recent matches

Diego Sosa has already contributed 4 assists this season

For the visitors, NicolĂĄs Tripichio shines with a rating of 7.26 in recent games

Danilo Arboleda convinces with strong defensive performances

MatĂ­as Reali remains a crucial asset in attack

Goalkeepers

Marcos Ledesma is in goal for Instituto and showed solid performances recently

José Devecchi guards the goal for San Lorenzo

San Lorenzo already kept 12 clean sheets due to strong defensive work

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Estadio Presidente Juan Domingo PerĂłn

The historical goal rate at this venue averages 2.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the historical matches played at this stadium

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