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Instituto – San Lorenzo1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Instituto
1.34
Total xG
1.91
San Lorenzo
0.58
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Instituto | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.56 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Alex Luna on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| M. de Ritis not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Excellent home form: Instituto is unbeaten in their last 5 games (WWWWD) and is analyzed as the 54% favorite by the model
- Tactical dominance: Instituto averaged 5.8 shots on target per game in their recent fixtures
- Rising attacking trend: Instituto is currently scoring more frequently (1.3 goals per game) compared to their season average
Risks
- Squad impact: Attacking threat Alex Luna is missing from Instituto's lineup
- Defensive resilience of the visitors: San Lorenzo concedes just 0.88 goals per away game on average
- Low-scoring history: The head-to-head record features only 3 goals for each team across 4 games, indicating a tight match
All probabilities
Result
Instituto54%
Draw31%
San Lorenzo15%
Goals
Over 1.558%
Under 1.542%
Over 2.530%
Under 2.570%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Double chance
Instituto or draw85%
San Lorenzo or draw46%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes34%
No66%
Most likely scores
1:0
18%
0:0
16%
2:0
13%
1:1
13%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Instituto: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (4 of 9 total)
- Instituto: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Instituto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 11 total)
Lineups
Instituto 3-4-3 · San Lorenzo 4-1-4-1
Instituto
- 29 M. Ledesma
- 30 J. Galván
- 26 L. Mosevich
- 6 F. Alarcón
- 44 G. Cerato
- 55 G. Abregú
- 15 M. Gallardo
- 3 D. Sosa
- 20 J. Córdoba Mosquera
- 17 M. Tissera
- 21 J. Lázaro
San Lorenzo
- 25 J. Devecchi
- 32 E. Herrera
- 2 D. Arboleda Hurtado
- 19 E. Amor
- 3 T. Rodríguez Pagano
- 5 I. Perruzzi Ambrosini
- 11 M. Reali
- 22 J. Álvarez
- 24 N. Tripichio
- 9 A. Cuello
- 29 R. Auzmendi
Substitutes
- 7 N. Guerra
- 13 J. Méndez
- 2 H. De La Fuente
- 9 F. Suárez
- 11 M. Fonseca
- 22 A. Massaccesi
- 32 A. Bravo
- 8 H. Acevedo
- 35 E. Sittaro Miranda
- 14 W. Viera Caballero
- 23 J. Meli
- 90 P. Baster
- 27 M. Río
- 10 F. Gulli
- 6 M. De Ritis Serrentino
- 16 G. Corujo Bríccola
- 35 A. Cordoba
- 14 A. Ladstatter
- 13 J. Rattalino
- 20 F. Altamirano
- 8 C. Insaurralde
- 62 G. Alassia
- 39 U. Ojeda
- 44 E. Salas
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