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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Rosario Central - Gimnasia La Plata

08/29/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Rosario Central
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Gimnasia La Plata
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
RCGLP

Rosario Central

Attack strength (1.4x league average)
+0.75
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Enzo Copetti on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Gimnasia La Plata

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.05
Alexis Steimbach not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists)
Nicolás Barros Schelotto on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 74% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia La Plata: 3 cards per game (33 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Rosario Central: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Independiente: 2 goals (84', 90+2')

  • 3
    Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Historical dominance: Rosario Central won all 4 head-to-head matches against Gimnasia La Plata
  • Away weakness: Gimnasia La Plata concede an average of 1.8 goals per away game
  • Mathematical favorites: The model calculates a home win probability of 54%
Risk Factors
  • Gimnasia La Plata are currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than their season average (1.2 goals)
  • The visitors are missing key players Alexis Steimbach and Nicolás Barros Schelotto from the squad
Overview

Rosario Central host Gimnasia La Plata at the Estadio 15 de Abril

Match on August 29, 2026, 8:00 PM in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Rosario Central occupy 4th place with 28 points

Gimnasia La Plata sit in 6th place with 26 points

A crucial battle in the upper third of the table

Form

Rosario Central show stable form with DWWWD

The hosts recorded 3 wins and 2 draws recently

Gimnasia La Plata register a form of WWWLL

The visitors suffered 2 consecutive losses after 3 previous wins

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Rosario Central score an average of 1.28 goals per game this season

Their home record shows 1.31 scored and 0.77 conceded goals on average

Gimnasia La Plata average 1.17 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per match

In away games, the visitors concede an average of 1.8 goals

Rosario Central kept 7 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Rosario Central secured 4 wins

The goal difference stands at 8:2 in favor of the home team

In the last meeting on February 25, 2026, Rosario Central won 2-1 away

Rosario Central dominate the historical encounters with a perfect record

Key Players

Ángel Di María is the top scorer for Rosario Central with 7 goals and 4 assists

Jáminton Campaz contributed 2 goals and 4 assists this season

Gastón Ávila averages a rating of 7.08 in defense

Agustín Auzmendi leads the Gimnasia La Plata attack with 4 goals and 2 assists

Nacho Fernández contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in midfield

Pedro Silva Torrejón has provided 3 assists in defense so far

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper Conan Ledesma made 20 appearances for Rosario Central this season

The home team managed to keep 7 clean sheets so far this term

Nelson Insfrán has played 22 matches in goal for Gimnasia La Plata

The visitors recorded a total of 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio 15 de Abril

Rosario Central have a strong home record with 1.31 home goals scored and 0.77 home goals conceded on average

The stadium stats show an average of 2.8 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate

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