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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol08/29/2026, 08:00 PM

Rosario Central – Gimnasia La Plata1 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Rosario Central
1.65
Total xG
2.54
Gimnasia La Plata
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorRosario CentralGimnasia La Plata
Attack strength (1.4x league average)+0.75
Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)−0.42−0.42
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)−0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)+0.05
Enzo Copetti on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Alexis Steimbach not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists)
NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 74% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Historical dominance: Rosario Central won all 4 head-to-head matches against Gimnasia La Plata
  • Away weakness: Gimnasia La Plata concede an average of 1.8 goals per away game
  • Mathematical favorites: The model calculates a home win probability of 54%

Risks

  • Gimnasia La Plata are currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than their season average (1.2 goals)
  • The visitors are missing key players Alexis Steimbach and NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto from the squad

All probabilities

Result
Rosario Central54%
Draw27%
Gimnasia La Plata19%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Rosario Central or draw81%
Gimnasia La Plata or draw46%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
5%
1:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Gimnasia La Plata: 3 cards per game (33 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
  2. Rosario Central: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Independiente: 2 goals (84', 90+2')
  3. Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Lineups

Rosario Central 4-2-3-1 · Gimnasia La Plata 4-2-3-1

Rosario Central
  • 23 J. Ledesma
  • 32 E. Coronel
  • 46 I. Ovando
  • 13 G. Ávila
  • 3 A. SĂĄndez
  • 5 F. Ibarra
  • 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
  • 26 G. Cantizano
  • 11 Á. Di MarĂ­a HernĂĄndez
  • 8 J. Campaz
  • 9 M. Ruben RodrĂ­guez
Gimnasia La Plata
  • 23 N. InsfrĂĄn
  • 31 B. Barros Schelotto
  • 13 G. Conti
  • 21 E. MartĂ­nez SuĂĄrez
  • 24 P. Silva TorrejĂłn
  • 5 J. Miramon
  • 18 M. Seoane
  • 17 L. Janson
  • 8 I. FernĂĄndez
  • 9 M. Zalazar
  • 29 A. Auzmendi
Substitutes
  • 10 F. Cervi
  • 1 A. Werner
  • 28 G. FernĂĄndez
  • 33 A. Soto
  • 31 F. Navarro
  • 39 F. Oviedo
  • 22 E. Copetti
  • 15 F. Mallo Blanco
  • 88 A. RodrĂ­guez Guaglianoni
  • 42 E. VerĂłn
  • 16 T. Badaloni
  • 2 S. Zaracho
  • 19 R. Colazo
  • 42 S. Villarreal
  • 4 R. Giampaoli
  • 22 M. Melluso
  • 27 J. Kadijevic
  • 10 N. Barros Schelotto
  • 16 A. Max
  • 20 J. PĂ©rez Suaza
  • 7 M. Panaro
  • 26 F. Torres
  • 33 P. Aguiar
  • 36 L. Lamella

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