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Talleres Córdoba – Central Cordoba SdE0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Talleres Córdoba
1.73
Total xG
2.84
Central Cordoba SdE
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Talleres Córdoba | Central Cordoba SdE |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.56 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Ronaldo Martínez not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Franco Cristaldo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alexandro Maidana on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Michael Santos not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Horacio Tijanovich on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 68% available) |
Key factors
- Strong offensive output: Talleres Córdoba averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Away defensive struggles: Central Cordoba SdE concede 2.67 goals per away game
- Statistical advantage: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 50%
Risks
- Key absences for the visitors: Michael Santos and Horacio Tijanovich are missing, leaving only 68% of the goal threat available
- Defensive vulnerability for Talleres Córdoba: The hosts recently conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.3
All probabilities
Result
Talleres Córdoba50%
Draw27%
Central Cordoba SdE23%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Talleres Córdoba or draw77%
Central Cordoba SdE or draw50%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Central Cordoba SdE: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Talleres Córdoba: 3 cards per game (32 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Central Cordoba SdE: 50% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 10)
- Talleres Córdoba: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Talleres Córdoba 4-4-2 · Central Cordoba SdE 5-4-1
Talleres Córdoba
- 32 L. Unsain
- 20 A. Schott
- 4 M. Catalán
- 13 V. Fascendini
- 23 G. Báez Corradi
- 2 T. Chamorro
- 39 L. Fabián Ortiz
- 5 M. Galarza
- 37 R. Lima Morais
- 11 V. Depietri
- 9 A. Álvarez Martínez
Central Cordoba SdE
- 1 A. Aguerre
- 20 F. Martínez Sánchez
- 33 A. Moyano
- 2 A. Maciel
- 6 Z. Mansilla
- 23 J. Cáceres Ovelar
- 10 M. Iacobellis
- 22 M. Vera
- 18 L. González Martínez
- 7 D. Barrera
- 19 E. Naya
Substitutes
- 49 V. Dávila
- 19 F. Cristaldo
- 12 J. Florentín
- 3 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 36 E. Chiavassa
- 1 S. Barbi
- 15 J. Sforza
- 10 G. Baroni
- 44 S. Fernández
- 25 T. Baroni
- 31 B. Trey
- 28 L. Sequeira
- 13 J. Gómez
- 29 J. Flores
- 37 A. Daian Laprida
- 42 J. Pignani
- 25 J. Vallejos
- 17 Y. Casermeiro
- 11 H. Tijanovich
- 3 L. Marchi Rivero
- 5 T. Cravero
- 30 F. Ariel Rodriguez Salomon
- 47 M. Cuitiño
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