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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Argentinos Juniors - Aldosivi

08/30/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Argentinos Juniors
1.7
Total xG
2.2
Aldosivi
0.5
Most Likely Scores

1:0

17%

2:0

16%

0:0

12%

1:1

11%

3:0

9%
What influences the xG?
AJALD

Argentinos Juniors

Attack strength (1.45x league average)
+0.69
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.26
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.00
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Aldosivi

Attack weakness (0.56x league average)
-0.49
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.07
Rising form (0.8 vs 0.6 season average)
+0.05
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
+0.00
Alan Sosa not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 71% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Aldosivi: dropped a lead in 5 of 5 games (12 points lost)

  • 2
    Aldosivi: 3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

25%

Away Win

10%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

90%

Away or Draw

35%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

35%

No

65%

Key Factors
  • Aldosivi weakened by the absence of Alan Sosa (1T/1A), leaving only 71% of their usual starting XI strength available
  • Argentinos Juniors dominated possession in recent matches (63.8% on average) and averaged 5.2 shots on target
  • Mathematical dominance of the hosts with a calculated win probability of 65% and 1.71 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Aldosivi concedes an extremely high average of 1.64 goals per away game
  • The visitors' attack failed to score in 12 matches already this season
  • Aldosivi averaged only 3.6 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Overview

Argentinos Juniors in 3rd place with 29 points host bottom-placed Aldosivi in 14th place with 8 points

Match on August 30, 2026, 9:00 PM at Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

The home team enters this clash as clear favorites

Form

Argentinos Juniors form: WWWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Aldosivi form: LLLDL

The hosts secured 3 wins from their last 5 matches

Aldosivi is winless in 5 games with 4 losses

Statistics

Argentinos Juniors averages 1.24 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded per game

Their home record shines with only 0.4 goals conceded per game and 9 clean sheets

Aldosivi scores only 0.45 goals on average away and concedes 1.64 goals per game

Aldosivi failed to score in 12 matches this season

Head-to-Head

3 head-to-head matches in history

2 wins for Argentinos Juniors and 1 win for Aldosivi

Last match ended in a 2-0 win for Argentinos Juniors on March 31, 2026

Key Players

Francisco Álvarez stands out with a season rating of 7.23

Alan Lescano has contributed 4 goals from midfield

Gastón Verón averages a rating of 7.11

Andrés Vombergar scored 1 goal this season

Nicolás Zalazar has a rating of 7.02

Nicolás Gaitán also scored 1 goal

Goalkeepers

Brayan Josué Cortés Fernández guards the goal with 12 clean sheets this season

Lucas Acosta is in goal on the other side with 5 clean sheets

Influences

The game is played on natural grass at the Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

The strong home advantage is reflected in only 0.4 conceded goals on average per home game

Historically, the stadium sees an average of 2.2 goals per match

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