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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol08/30/2026, 08:00 PM

Argentinos Juniors – Aldosivi2 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Argentinos Juniors
1.71
Total xG
2.24
Aldosivi
0.53
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorArgentinos JuniorsAldosivi
Attack strength (1.45x league average)+0.69
Attack weakness (0.56x league average)−0.49
Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)−0.43−0.43
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)−0.26
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)+0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)−0.07
Rising form (0.8 vs 0.6 season average)+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)−0.00
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)+0.00
Alan Sosa not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 71% available)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Aldosivi weakened by the absence of Alan Sosa (1T/1A), leaving only 71% of their usual starting XI strength available
  • Argentinos Juniors dominated possession in recent matches (63.8% on average) and averaged 5.2 shots on target
  • Mathematical dominance of the hosts with a calculated win probability of 65% and 1.71 expected goals

Risks

  • Aldosivi concedes an extremely high average of 1.64 goals per away game
  • The visitors' attack failed to score in 12 matches already this season
  • Aldosivi averaged only 3.6 shots on target in their last 5 matches

All probabilities

Result
Argentinos Juniors65%
Draw25%
Aldosivi10%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Double chance
Argentinos Juniors or draw90%
Aldosivi or draw35%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes35%
No65%

Most likely scores

1:0
17%
2:0
16%
0:0
12%
1:1
11%
3:0
9%
2:1
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Aldosivi: dropped a lead in 5 of 5 games (12 points lost)
  2. Aldosivi: 3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

Lineups

Argentinos Juniors 4-4-2 · Aldosivi 5-4-1

Argentinos Juniors
  • 25 B. CortĂ©s FernĂĄndez
  • 22 K. Coronel AlarcĂłn
  • 16 F. Álvarez
  • 6 F. VĂĄzquez
  • 20 S. Prieto
  • 8 H. LĂłpez Muñoz
  • 11 N. Oroz
  • 15 K. GutiĂ©rrez
  • 10 A. Lescano
  • 27 T. Molina
  • 9 G. VerĂłn
Aldosivi
  • 42 L. Acosta
  • 4 R. GonzĂĄlez
  • 25 N. Breitenbruch
  • 33 N. Zalazar
  • 32 J. Pombo
  • 38 Mateo SebastiĂĄn Vales
  • 16 B. DadĂ­n
  • 8 MartĂ­n Adolfo GarcĂ­a
  • 19 L. Nahuel Castro
  • 10 O. GaitĂĄn
  • 29 A. Vombergar
Substitutes
  • 30 A. NĂșñez Duarte
  • 48 F. Jainikoski
  • 17 F. Paredes
  • 7 I. Morales Bravo
  • 19 M. GimĂ©nez Rojas
  • 12 G. Siri Payer
  • 21 C. FlorentĂ­n
  • 26 C. Bravo
  • 47 D. Rodrigo Porcel
  • 4 E. Godoy
  • 29 E. Viveros Mereles
  • 11 B. Palavecino
  • 23 I. Chicco
  • 9 N. Cordero
  • 7 N. GuzmĂĄn
  • 28 S. Moya
  • 15 F. Perruzzi
  • 24 F. Anso
  • 14 E. LĂłpez
  • 21 M. Godoy
  • 18 A. ChĂĄvez
  • 37 P. Argoytia
  • 26 S. Sammarone

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