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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Deportivo Riestra - Vélez Sarsfield

08/29/2026, 05:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Deportivo Riestra
1.0
Total xG
2.0
Vélez Sarsfield
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

12%

0:1

11%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
DRVS

Deportivo Riestra

Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.03
Strong home record (1 vs 0.7 goals/match)

Vélez Sarsfield

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.06

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vélez Sarsfield: 43% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 14)

  • 2
    Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 3
    Vélez Sarsfield: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 11 games (45%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

34%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Vélez Sarsfield are currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.3) based on advancedStats
  • Deportivo Riestra recently averaged only 3.6 shots on target per match, playing counter-oriented football
  • Extremely strong home defense for Deportivo Riestra, conceding only 0.28 goals per game over 18 home matches
Risk Factors
  • Deportivo Riestra failed to score in 15 out of 22 matches played this season
  • Low-scoring trend at Estadio Guillermo Laza with an average of only 1.8 goals per game
  • Vélez Sarsfield are highly stable on the road, conceding only 0.77 goals per away game
Overview

Deportivo Riestra host Vélez Sarsfield

Match on August 29, 2026, 5:45 PM at Estadio Guillermo Laza

Deportivo Riestra sit in 15th place with 11 points

Vélez Sarsfield visit as 3rd in the table with 28 points

The mathematical model expects a tight duel with 1.04 to 0.99 expected goals

Form

Deportivo Riestra form: LLWLD

Recent record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Vélez Sarsfield display strong form: WWDDD

Visitors undefeated in 5 games with 2 wins and 3 draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Deportivo Riestra average 0.5 goals scored per game this season

The hosts' defense concedes 0.77 goals per game on average

Vélez Sarsfield score an average of 1.17 goals per match

The visitors' defense allows 0.78 goals per game on average

Riestra failed to score in 15 out of 22 games

Head-to-Head

A total of 4 head-to-head matches in history

Deportivo Riestra with 1 win, Vélez Sarsfield with 0 wins and 3 draws

The last encounter ended in a 0-0 draw on February 25, 2026

Goal difference of 4-3 in favor of Deportivo Riestra

Key Players

Antony Alonso has scored 4 goals in 22 appearances this season

Milton Céliz stands out in midfield with a season rating of 7.04

Goalkeeper Ignacio Arce maintains a strong average rating of 7.19

Manuel Lanzini leads the visitors with 6 goals scored this season

Matías Pellegrini has recorded 4 assists with a season rating of 6.95

Elías Gómez contributed 3 assists with a season rating of 6.87

Goalkeepers

Ignacio Arce played 22 games and secured 9 clean sheets

Tomás Marchiori has 6 appearances, with the team keeping 9 clean sheets overall

Arce holds a season average rating of 7.19

Marchiori averages a strong rating of 7.17 this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Estadio Guillermo Laza

Home advantage for Deportivo Riestra, conceding only 5 goals in 18 home games

An average of only 1.8 goals per game was scored in the 5 matches at this venue

Both teams scored in none of the 5 home matches

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