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Deportivo Riestra – Vélez Sarsfield1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo Riestra
1.04
Total xG
2.03
Vélez Sarsfield
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo Riestra | Vélez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Strong home record (1 vs 0.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Vélez Sarsfield are currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.3) based on advancedStats
- Deportivo Riestra recently averaged only 3.6 shots on target per match, playing counter-oriented football
- Extremely strong home defense for Deportivo Riestra, conceding only 0.28 goals per game over 18 home matches
Risks
- Deportivo Riestra failed to score in 15 out of 22 matches played this season
- Low-scoring trend at Estadio Guillermo Laza with an average of only 1.8 goals per game
- Vélez Sarsfield are highly stable on the road, conceding only 0.77 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo Riestra34%
Draw34%
Vélez Sarsfield32%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Double chance
Deportivo Riestra or draw68%
Vélez Sarsfield or draw66%
No draw66%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
12%
0:1
11%
2:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vélez Sarsfield: 43% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 14)
- Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Vélez Sarsfield: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 11 games (45%)
Lineups
Deportivo Riestra 5-3-2 · Vélez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
Deportivo Riestra
- 1 I. Arce
- 36 M. Bracamonte
- 24 F. Miño
- 22 C. Paz
- 6 I. Gariglio
- 15 N. Sansotre
- 10 B. Sánchez
- 8 M. Céliz
- 27 J. Goitía
- 9 G. Benegas
- 7 A. Alonso Espinoza
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 2 E. Mammana
- 3 E. Gómez
- 29 R. Aliendro
- 8 L. Robertone
- 11 M. Pellegrini
- 22 M. Lanzini
- 17 A. Zahir Verón
- 15 D. Godoy
Substitutes
- 21 T. González
- 16 N. Watson
- 40 G. Obredor
- 5 P. Ramírez
- 35 Á. Stringa
- 11 A. Díaz
- 14 P. Monje
- 13 R. Gallo
- 4 Y. Murillo Mena
- 23 M. Arzamendia Espinoza
- 29 M. Graneros
- 17 ?. Almada
- 23 F. Sanguinetti
- 35 M. Arias
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 16 L. Magallán
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 48 L.Feler
- 47 A. Pereyra
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 39 T. Aguirre
- 30 L. Piola
- 37 J. Policella
- 27 S. Prima
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