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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Boca Juniors - Lanús

08/29/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Boca Juniors
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Lanús
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%

3:0

6%

1:2

5%
What influences the xG?
BJLAN

Boca Juniors

Attack strength (1.4x league average)
+0.71
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Leandro Paredes on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Tomás Aranda not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)

Lanús

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Ramiro Carrera not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lanús: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

  • 2
    Yoshan Valois: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Boca Juniors: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Huracán: 2 goals (87', 116')

  • 4
    Boca Juniors: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Lanús: 4 of 8 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 6
    Lanús: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (4 of 8)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

28%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Boca Juniors' exceptionally strong home defense conceding just 0.78 goals per game meets Lanús' low scoring average of 1.09
  • Recent form: Boca Juniors remain unbeaten in their last 5 games while Lanús suffered 3 defeats in their last 5 matches
  • Model prediction: The pipeline calculates a 52% home win probability and 1.61 expected goals for Boca Juniors
Risk Factors
  • Boca Juniors are scoring fewer goals recently (1.2) compared to their season average (1.43)
  • Squad impact: Key players Leandro Paredes and Tomás Aranda are missing from the Boca Juniors lineup
  • Fatigue factor: Lanús have had only 4 days of rest since their last match
Overview

Boca Juniors (2nd place, 30 points) host Lanús (6th place, 24 points) at the Estadio Alberto José Armando

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 29, 2026, 12:30 AM

Boca Juniors aim to secure three points to keep pressure on the league leaders

Form

Boca Juniors: DWDDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts recorded 1 win and 4 draws in their recent matches

Lanús: LLWLD

The visitors registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 defeats in their last five outings

Statistics

Boca Juniors score an average of 1.3 goals and concede 0.87 per match

Lanús average 1.09 goals scored and 1.04 goals conceded per game

Boca Juniors are highly disciplined at home, conceding only 0.78 goals per match

Lanús suffer defensively on the road, conceding 1.17 goals on average

Head-to-Head

3 head-to-head matches in recent history

Even record with 1 win for Boca Juniors, 1 win for Lanús, and 1 draw

The last match between these teams ended in a 3:0 scoreline

Key Players

Boca Juniors: Miguel Merentiel (7 goals, 2 assists), Santiago Ascacíbar (5 goals, 1 assist), Alan Velasco (3 goals, 1 assist)

Lanús: Dylan Aquino (6 goals, 2 assists), Yoshan Valois (4 goals, 1 assist), Eduardo Salvio (1 goal, 3 assists)

Not in squad for Boca Juniors: Leandro Paredes (2 goals, 3 assists), Tomás Aranda (1 goal, 3 assists)

Not in squad for Lanús: Ramiro Carrera (2 goals, 4 assists)

Goalkeepers

Boca Juniors: Álvaro Montero (6 appearances, 6.98 average rating)

Lanús: Nahuel Losada (21 appearances, 9 clean sheets)

Boca Juniors have kept 10 clean sheets this season while Lanús registered 9

Influences

Strong home field advantage for Boca Juniors at the Estadio Alberto José Armando

Matches at this stadium generate a high average of 3.0 goals per game

Boca Juniors have only conceded 7 goals at home throughout the campaign

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