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Boca Juniors – Lanús1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Boca Juniors
1.61
Total xG
2.52
Lanús
0.91
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Boca Juniors | Lanús |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | +0.71 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Leandro Paredes on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Tomás Aranda not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ramiro Carrera not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Boca Juniors' exceptionally strong home defense conceding just 0.78 goals per game meets Lanús' low scoring average of 1.09
- Recent form: Boca Juniors remain unbeaten in their last 5 games while Lanús suffered 3 defeats in their last 5 matches
- Model prediction: The pipeline calculates a 52% home win probability and 1.61 expected goals for Boca Juniors
Risks
- Boca Juniors are scoring fewer goals recently (1.2) compared to their season average (1.43)
- Squad impact: Key players Leandro Paredes and Tomás Aranda are missing from the Boca Juniors lineup
- Fatigue factor: Lanús have had only 4 days of rest since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Boca Juniors52%
Draw28%
Lanús20%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Boca Juniors or draw80%
Lanús or draw48%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
6%
1:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lanús: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Yoshan Valois: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Boca Juniors: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Huracán: 2 goals (87', 116')
- Boca Juniors: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Lanús: 4 of 8 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Lanús: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (4 of 8)
Lineups
Boca Juniors 4-3-3 · Lanús 4-2-3-1
Boca Juniors
- 1 Á. Montero Perales
- 24 D. Gorosito
- 2 L. Di Lollo
- 42 F. Herrera
- 3 L. Blanco
- 25 S. Ascacíbar
- 23 C. Rey Domenech
- 18 M. Delgado
- 19 L. Flores
- 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
- 20 A. Velasco
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 33 T. Guidara
- 24 C. Izquierdoz
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 6 S. Marcich
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 11 E. Salvio
- 8 F. Watson
- 25 D. Aquino
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
Substitutes
- 13 E. Valencia Lastra
- 5 L. Paredes
- 11 Á. Romero Villamayor
- 9 M. Giménez
- 15 W. Alarcón Cepeda
- 4 J. Figal
- 7 C. Palacios Núñez
- 12 L. Brey
- 8 T. Belmonte
- 21 K. Zenon
- 22 S. Villa Cano
- 46 M. Satas
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 16 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 27 F. Sánchez
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 1 F. Petroli
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 17 D. Medina
- 38 B. Acosta
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
- 40 T. López
- 42 G. Lobos
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