Match report â
Independiente Rivadavia â Racing Club3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Independiente Rivadavia
1.76
Total xG
2.57
Racing Club
0.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Independiente Rivadavia | Racing Club |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.53x league average) | +0.87 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | â0.42 | â0.42 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | â0.23 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | â0.18 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | â0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | â0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap) | â0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | â0.02 | |
| Fabrizio Sartori on the bench (7 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Alejo Osella on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Juan Elordi on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- League leaders Independiente Rivadavia (34 points) face a struggling Racing Club side that has been winless in their last 5 matches
- The mathematical model predicts a high home win probability of 59% with 1.76 expected goals for the hosts
- Independiente Rivadavia recently averaged 4.6 shots on target per match, while Racing Club averaged only 3.4 shots on target
Risks
- Both teams have seen their scoring stall recently, with the hosts averaging 1.3 goals (season average: 1.8) and the visitors 0.8 goals (season average: 1.2)
- Racing Club recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match
- Historically balanced head-to-head record with 1 win each and 2 draws in their 4 meetings
All probabilities
Result
Independiente Rivadavia59%
Draw26%
Racing Club15%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Independiente Rivadavia or draw85%
Racing Club or draw41%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Racing Club: 3.7 cards per game (38 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Independiente Rivadavia 4-3-1-2 · Racing Club 4-3-1-2
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 2 L. Costa MartĂnez
- 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
- 42 S. Studer
- 8 L. Bucca
- 11 G. RĂos
- 5 T. Bottari
- 25 J. FlorentĂn Bobadilla
- 10 M. FernĂĄndez
- 9 A. Arce Barrios
- 17 M. Salas
Racing Club
- 25 F. Cambeses
- 4 E. Cannavo
- 38 M. MartĂnez
- 43 G. Escudero
- 18 L. Espino GarcĂa
- 16 D. Ortegoza
- 33 L. PĂ©rez
- 11 F. Zaracho
- 10 M. Miljevic
- 9 A. MartĂnez
- 17 T. Conechny
Substitutes
- 13 A. Osella
- 21 E. GĂłmez Riga
- 20 A. Riep
- 3 J. Elordi
- 32 K. VĂĄzquez
- 19 R. Atencio
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
- 7 V. Ramis
- 77 L. Sequeira
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 28 A. Vigo
- 23 L. DĂaz
- 14 J. Barinaga
- 34 T. Rubio
- 30 M. Tagliamonte
- 7 D. Vergara HernĂĄndez
- 22 E. Torres
- 24 A. FernĂĄndez
- 20 G. Lodico
- 5 C. Kranevitter
- 37 S. Aguirre
- 40 F. Fraga
- 2 M. PĂ©rez
- 35 D. Deusa
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