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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Independiente Rivadavia - Racing Club

08/31/2026, 12:30 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Independiente Rivadavia
1.8
Total xG
2.6
Racing Club
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
IRRC

Independiente Rivadavia

Attack strength (1.53x league average)
+0.87
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.02
Fabrizio Sartori on the bench (7 goals, 0 assists)
Alejo Osella on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Juan Elordi on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Racing Club

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap)
-0.06
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Racing Club: 3.7 cards per game (38 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

26%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • League leaders Independiente Rivadavia (34 points) face a struggling Racing Club side that has been winless in their last 5 matches
  • The mathematical model predicts a high home win probability of 59% with 1.76 expected goals for the hosts
  • Independiente Rivadavia recently averaged 4.6 shots on target per match, while Racing Club averaged only 3.4 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Both teams have seen their scoring stall recently, with the hosts averaging 1.3 goals (season average: 1.8) and the visitors 0.8 goals (season average: 1.2)
  • Racing Club recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match
  • Historically balanced head-to-head record with 1 win each and 2 draws in their 4 meetings
Overview

Independiente Rivadavia hosts Racing Club at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on August 31, 2026, 12:30 AM

The league leaders (34 points) meet the 8th-placed team (21 points)

Strong favorite role for the home team in the title race

Form

Independiente Rivadavia form: WLWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Racing Club form: DLLLD

Independiente Rivadavia recorded 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches

Racing Club is winless in 5 matches with 3 losses and 2 draws

Statistics

Independiente Rivadavia averages 1.52 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match this season

At home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded

Racing Club averages 1.00 goals scored and 1.04 goals conceded per game

Away from home Racing averages 1.00 goals scored and 0.92 conceded

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 1 win each and 2 draws in 4 head-to-head matches

Balanced goal difference of 4-4 goals

The last direct meeting on February 26, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Top attacker Álex Arce has 5 season goals and showed rising form recently

MatĂ­as FernĂĄndez recorded 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 appearances

José Florentín contributes from midfield with 4 goals this season

Not in squad: Fabrizio Sartori (7 goals / 0 assists), Alejo Osella (4 goals / 0 assists), Juan Elordi (1 goal / 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

NicolĂĄs Bolcato played 21 matches for the hosts with an average rating of 6.84

Facundo Cambeses played 24 matches for the visitors with an average rating of 6.90

Independiente Rivadavia kept 6 clean sheets compared to 8 by Racing Club

Influences

High average of 3.8 goals per match at the Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 analyzed matches at this stadium

Match played on natural grass

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