Match report →
Aldosivi – Banfield3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Aldosivi
1.06
Total xG
2.15
Banfield
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Aldosivi | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.47 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Rising form (1 vs 0.6 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Strong home record (0.8 vs 0.6 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Balanced favorite role: The model calculates a 33% probability for a draw and 35% for a Banfield win
- Defensive approach: Both teams recently played counter-oriented football, averaging under 40% possession
- Offensive improvement: Aldosivi currently scores more frequently with 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 0.6
Risks
- Low scoring match: The probability for over 2.5 goals is calculated at only 37%
- Vulnerable away defense: Banfield concedes an average of 1.78 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Aldosivi33%
Draw33%
Banfield34%
Double chance
Aldosivi or draw66%
Banfield or draw67%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
11%
1:0
11%
1:2
7%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Aldosivi: dropped a lead in 6 of 6 games (15 points lost)
- Banfield: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Banfield: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 12 total)
- Banfield: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Aldosivi: 3.1 cards per game (36 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Aldosivi 4-2-3-1 · Banfield 4-4-2
Aldosivi
- 42 L. Acosta
- 14 E. López
- 25 N. Breitenbruch
- 32 J. Pombo
- 38 Mateo Sebastián Vales
- 8 Martín Adolfo García
- 16 B. Dadín
- 10 O. Gaitán
- 19 L. Nahuel Castro
- 24 F. Anso
- 29 A. Vombergar
Banfield
- 50 D. Rodríguez
- 24 S. López Garcia
- 37 R. Malanca
- 6 N. Meriano
- 19 L. Cano
- 20 T. Adoryán
- 13 B. Zacarias Oviedo
- 35 I. Pais Mayán
- 7 L. Piñero
- 28 M. Hernández
- 22 A. Machado Aycaguer
Substitutes
- 11 B. Palavecino
- 23 I. Chicco
- 27 T. Fernández
- 9 N. Cordero
- 7 N. Guzmán
- 33 N. Zalazar
- 4 R. González
- 28 S. Moya
- 15 F. Perruzzi
- 21 M. Godoy
- 18 A. Chávez
- 37 P. Argoytia
- 40 D. Zalazar
- 27 L. Abraham
- 30 F. Anselmo
- 11 F. Álvarez
- 2 S. Daniele
- 10 L. Gómez
- 25 G. Santilli
- 18 F. Medina
- 21 L. Villegas
- 5 S. Esquivel
- 4 J. Alfaro
- 70 J. Arteaga Arboleda
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