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River Plate – Independiente Rivadavia3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
River Plate
1.19
Total xG
2.15
Independiente Rivadavia
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | River Plate | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | −0.04 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Aníbal Moreno not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Joaquín Freitas not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Sheyko Studer not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical setup: River Plate dominated recent matches with an average of 58.8% possession
- Offensive drive: Independiente Rivadavia averaged 5.0 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Title battle: The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 39% for the league leaders
Risks
- Sluggish attack: Advanced stats show Independiente Rivadavia's goal production stalling at 1.5 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.8
- Away defensive gaps: Independiente Rivadavia concede an average of 1.29 goals per away game
- Missing regulars: Aníbal Moreno and Joaquín Freitas are not in the starting lineup for River Plate
All probabilities
Result
River Plate39%
Draw33%
Independiente Rivadavia28%
Double chance
River Plate or draw72%
Independiente Rivadavia or draw61%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
9%
2:0
8%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- River Plate: 7 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- River Plate with Sebastián Driussi starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (16/10 games, last 27)
- Álex Arce: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Independiente Rivadavia: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
River Plate 4-1-3-2 · Independiente Rivadavia 4-3-1-2
River Plate
- 41 S. Beltrán
- 29 G. Montiel
- 28 L. Martínez Quarta
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 21 M. Acuña
- 15 F. Vera
- 50 T. Andrada
- 23 T. Almada
- 26 T. Galván
- 10 Á. Correa Martínez
- 9 S. Driussi
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 13 A. Osella
- 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
- 2 L. Costa Martínez
- 3 J. Elordi
- 11 G. Ríos
- 5 T. Bottari
- 25 J. Florentín Bobadilla
- 10 M. Fernández
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
- 9 A. Arce Barrios
Substitutes
- 18 L. Beltrán
- 8 M. Arambarri Rosa
- 3 F. Ortega
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 2 T. Palacio
- 24 J. Meza
- 33 E. Centurión
- 44 L.Silva
- 20 G. González Apud
- 43 V. Lucero
- 21 E. Gómez Riga
- 27 D. Mayans
- 36 E. Bonifacio
- 32 K. Vázquez
- 19 R. Atencio
- 7 V. Ramis
- 8 L. Bucca
- 77 L. Sequeira
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 28 A. Vigo
- 45 L. Sábato
- 23 L. Díaz
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