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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

River Plate - Independiente Rivadavia

09/06/2026, 10:15 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
River Plate
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Independiente Rivadavia
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
RPIR

River Plate

Attack strength (1.22x league average)
-0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
AnĂ­bal Moreno not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
JoaquĂ­n Freitas not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Independiente Rivadavia

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.18
Attack strength (1.2x league average)
+0.03
Sheyko Studer not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    River Plate: 7 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    River Plate with SebastiĂĄn Driussi starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (16/10 games, last 27)

  • 3
    Álex Arce: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Independiente Rivadavia: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

33%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Tactical setup: River Plate dominated recent matches with an average of 58.8% possession
  • Offensive drive: Independiente Rivadavia averaged 5.0 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Title battle: The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 39% for the league leaders
Risk Factors
  • Sluggish attack: Advanced stats show Independiente Rivadavia's goal production stalling at 1.5 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.8
  • Away defensive gaps: Independiente Rivadavia concede an average of 1.29 goals per away game
  • Missing regulars: AnĂ­bal Moreno and JoaquĂ­n Freitas are not in the starting lineup for River Plate
Overview

River Plate host Independiente Rivadavia at the Estadio Monumental

Top-of-the-table clash in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on September 6, 2026, 10:15 PM

League leaders River Plate with 29 points face second-placed Independiente Rivadavia with 28 points

The top spot in the standings is at stake

Form

Both teams show an identical record in their last 5 matches

River Plate with a form of LLWDW following a recent 3-2 win against Banfield

Independiente Rivadavia with a form of LWLDW after a 3-1 victory over Racing Club

Form summary shows 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses for each team

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

River Plate score an average of 1.33 goals per game and concede 0.93 goals this season

River Plate's home record stands at an average of 1.32 goals scored and 0.89 goals conceded

Independiente Rivadavia average 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded per match

Away from home, Independiente Rivadavia concede an average of 1.29 goals while scoring 1.57

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 direct duels in recent years

Independiente Rivadavia recorded 1 win and 1 draw

River Plate are still waiting for their first win against this opponent

The last meeting on March 3, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Ángel Correa is in great shape with 3 goals, 1 assist, and a 7.23 rating

Thiago Almada impresses in midfield with a 7.44 average rating

SebastiĂĄn Driussi has already scored 6 goals this season for his team

Álex Arce is dangerous with 6 goals and a rising form trend

Fabrizio Sartori is the visitors' top scorer with 8 goals this season

MatĂ­as FernĂĄndez has contributed 3 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Santiago BeltrĂĄn has played 27 matches in goal with a 6.82 rating

The home goalkeeper has recorded 10 clean sheets this season

NicolĂĄs Bolcato played 22 matches with a 6.84 average rating

The away goalkeeper has achieved 6 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio Monumental

The venue registered a goalless 0-0 draw in its only recorded international match

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