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Platense – Deportivo Riestra1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Platense
0.92
Total xG
1.94
Deportivo Riestra
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Platense | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 11% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Antony Alonso on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 77% available) |
Key factors
- Low-scoring tendency: The mathematical model estimates the probability for over 2.5 goals at only 31%
- Away defense struggle: Deportivo Riestra concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away match
- Tactical shooting: Platense averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Riestra's 3.2
Risks
- Platense's scoring drought: The home team failed to score in 12 out of 23 matches this season
- Historical disadvantage: Platense is still waiting for their first victory against Deportivo Riestra after 4 head-to-head matches
- Riestra's offensive loss: The absence of Antony Alonso (4 goals this season) weakens the visitors' attacking threat
All probabilities
Result
Platense30%
Draw35%
Deportivo Riestra35%
Double chance
Platense or draw65%
Deportivo Riestra or draw70%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.559%
Under 1.541%
Over 2.531%
Under 2.569%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:0
16%
1:1
15%
0:1
13%
1:0
11%
0:2
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Platense: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
- Platense: 4 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Platense: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 10 total)
- Platense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Platense 4-2-3-1 · Deportivo Riestra 5-4-1
Platense
- 30 J. Cozzani
- 25 J. Saborido
- 13 I. Vázquez
- 34 M. Mendia
- 3 T. Silva
- 5 I. Gómez
- 24 M. Barrios Santos
- 43 N. Retamar
- 18 B. Merlini
- 10 F. Zapiola
- 99 G. Lencina
Deportivo Riestra
- 1 I. Arce
- 36 M. Bracamonte
- 24 F. Miño
- 22 C. Paz
- 6 I. Gariglio
- 15 N. Sansotre
- 10 B. Sánchez
- 8 M. Céliz
- 27 J. Goitía
- 21 T. González
- 9 G. Benegas
Substitutes
- 33 J. Gauto
- 22 N. Sumavil
- 17 F. Bussio
- 21 A. Lotti
- 15 F. Amarfil
- 4 A. Lagos
- 29 F. Minerva
- 31 V. Cuesta
- 7 G. Mainero
- 38 A. Ingenthron
- 16 G. Togni
- 11 N. López Alonso
- 7 A. Alonso Espinoza
- 16 N. Watson
- 40 G. Obredor
- 5 P. Ramírez
- 35 Á. Stringa
- 11 A. Díaz
- 14 P. Monje
- 13 R. Gallo
- 4 Y. Murillo Mena
- 23 M. Arzamendia Espinoza
- 29 M. Graneros
- 17 ?. Almada
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