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Gimnasia La Plata – Tigre2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia La Plata
1.08
Total xG
2.29
Tigre
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia La Plata | Tigre |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| Alexis Steimbach on the bench (1 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Nicolás Barros Schelotto on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 77% available) | ||
| Martín Garay on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 87% available) |
Key factors
- Offensive trend: Gimnasia is scoring more frequently recently (1.6 goals) compared to their season average (1.3)
- In-form visitors: Tigre is unbeaten in 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws) and is also scoring more recently (1.5 goals) than their season average (1.3)
- Balanced prediction: Mathematical analysis indicates a tight margin with a 37% probability of an away win for Tigre
Risks
- Alexis Steimbach and Nicolás Barros Schelotto are missing from Gimnasia's squad
- Tigre averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo historically sees low-scoring matches with an Over 2.5 rate of only 20%
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia La Plata31%
Draw32%
Tigre37%
Double chance
Gimnasia La Plata or draw63%
Tigre or draw69%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia La Plata: 3.1 cards per game (34 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Gimnasia La Plata 4-1-4-1 · Tigre 4-2-3-1
Gimnasia La Plata
- 23 N. Insfrán
- 31 B. Barros Schelotto
- 13 G. Conti
- 21 E. Martínez Suárez
- 24 P. Silva Torrejón
- 5 J. Miramon
- 9 M. Zalazar
- 8 I. Fernández
- 18 M. Seoane
- 17 L. Janson
- 29 A. Auzmendi
Tigre
- 12 F. Zenobio
- 4 V. Moreno
- 20 A. Barrionuevo
- 32 J. Villalba
- 3 N. Banegas
- 27 S. González
- 5 B. Leyes Sosa
- 11 T. Serrago
- 10 J. Saralegui
- 22 S. López Grobin
- 29 I. Russo Cordero
Substitutes
- 19 R. Colazo
- 4 R. Giampaoli
- 22 M. Melluso
- 27 J. Kadijevic
- 10 N. Barros Schelotto
- 16 A. Max
- 25 A. Steimbach
- 32 L. Torres
- 20 J. Pérez Suaza
- 7 M. Panaro
- 26 F. Torres
- 33 P. Aguiar
- 33 M. Méndez Acosta
- 21 S. Medina
- 8 M. Garay
- 17 G. Soto Arredondo
- 24 F. Álvarez
- 25 I. Subiabre
- 50 I. Peluffo
- 23 G. Requena
- 72 M. Rivas Rojas
- 40 L. Minniti
- 47 S.ebastian Lezcano
- 26 L. Morales
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