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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Gimnasia La Plata - Tigre

09/05/2026, 05:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Gimnasia La Plata
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Tigre
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
GLPTIG

Gimnasia La Plata

Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.16
Attack strength (1.3x league average)
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.10
Alexis Steimbach on the bench (1 goals, 6 assists)
NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 77% available)

Tigre

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.22
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.09
MartĂ­n Garay on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia La Plata: 3.1 cards per game (34 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

32%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Offensive trend: Gimnasia is scoring more frequently recently (1.6 goals) compared to their season average (1.3)
  • In-form visitors: Tigre is unbeaten in 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws) and is also scoring more recently (1.5 goals) than their season average (1.3)
  • Balanced prediction: Mathematical analysis indicates a tight margin with a 37% probability of an away win for Tigre
Risk Factors
  • Alexis Steimbach and NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto are missing from Gimnasia's squad
  • Tigre averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo historically sees low-scoring matches with an Over 2.5 rate of only 20%
Overview

Gimnasia La Plata (6th place, 22 points) hosts Tigre (10th place, 18 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on September 5, 2026, 6:30 PM

A mid-table clash with close margins

Form

Gimnasia is in WWLLW form (3 wins, 2 losses in 5 matches)

Tigre remains unbeaten in 5 matches with DWDWD form (2 wins, 3 draws)

Gimnasia comes off a 2-1 win against Rosario Central

Tigre recently drew 0-0 against Barracas Central

Statistics

Gimnasia scores an average of 1.20 goals and concedes 1.28 goals per game

Tigre scores an average of 1.04 goals while conceding only 0.78 goals per match

Gimnasia at home averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.00 conceded

Tigre away averages 1.00 goal scored and concedes 0.90

At the Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, matches average 2.2 goals

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches in history both ended in draws

Neither team has managed to secure a victory so far

The last meeting on March 2, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw

The goal difference in direct duels is balanced at 3-3

Key Players

AgustĂ­n Auzmendi has recorded 4 goals and 2 assists in 25 season appearances

Nacho FernĂĄndez has 2 goals and 2 assists with a 7.01 rating

Ignacio Russo is Tigre's top scorer with 6 goals and 3 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Nelson InsfrĂĄn starts in goal for Gimnasia, keeping 8 clean sheets this season

Felipe Zenobio has also achieved 8 clean sheets for Tigre

InsfrĂĄn has an average rating of 6.96

Zenobio holds an average rating of 6.87 this season

Influences

Gimnasia plays with home advantage on grass at the Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

The home record shows 16 goals scored and 13 conceded in 13 games

Tigre travels with a solid away defense, conceding only 9 goals in 10 games

Historical venue stats indicate low-scoring games

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