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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Sarmiento

09/04/2026, 07:45 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.8
Total xG
1.9
Sarmiento
1.0
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

1:1

15%

0:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
EDRCSAR

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.46
Attack weakness (0.52x league average)
-0.38
Rising form (0.7 vs 0.4 season average)
+0.07
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.05
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Strong home record (0.8 vs 0.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Sarmiento

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.55
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.19
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.03
Julián Contrera on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: opponent scores first in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Sarmiento: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

35%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

57%

Under 1.5

43%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Form disparity: Sarmiento secured four wins from their last five matches, whereas Estudiantes has only managed one victory during the entire season
  • Offensive mismatch: Sarmiento currently averages 1.8 goals per match, well above their season mean, while Estudiantes has scored a mere 8 goals in 23 fixtures
  • Low-scoring stadium trend: Historical figures for Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto indicate an extremely low average of 0.8 goals per game, with zero occurrences of both teams scoring in 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Severe away defensive struggles: Sarmiento concedes an extremely high average of 2.75 goals per game when playing away
  • Crucial injury losses: Estudiantes is missing L. González, V. Fenoglio, and M. Ruiz Díaz, who are all sidelined due to cruciate ligament tears
Overview

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto hosts Sarmiento at the Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 4, 2026, 9:45 PM

The hosts are in 15th place with 5 points, while the visitors sit in 9th place with 19 points

A clash between the bottom-placed team and a mid-table side looking to climb higher

Form

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto is struggling with form (Form: DLLDD - W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Sarmiento was on a four-game winning streak before their last defeat (Form: WWWWL)

The visitors display a much stronger trajectory with 4 wins and 1 loss recently

Statistics

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto has a weak offense, scoring only 8 goals in 23 matches with an average of 0.35

Sarmiento has been much more prolific, scoring 26 goals this season with an average of 1.13

However, Sarmiento's defense has leaked an average of 2.75 goals per away game

Estudiantes limits opponents to just 0.79 goals per home game on average

Head-to-Head

There has been only 1 previous head-to-head encounter between these sides

Sarmiento won that single matchup 1-0 on March 3, 2026

The historical record currently favors the away side

Key Players

Gabriel Alanís has scored 2 goals this season for the home side

Junior Marabel leads the visitors' attack with 10 goals and 4 assists

Julián Mavilla is in exceptional form with 3 goals in his last 5 appearances

Goalkeepers

Lucas Bruera has made 7 appearances with a season average rating of 6.96

Thyago Ayala boasts a strong rating of 7.25 over his 5 appearances

The home side has secured 6 clean sheets overall, while the visitors have kept 7 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto

The venue historical matches show a low-scoring trend, averaging only 0.8 goals per match

Both teams scored was not recorded once in the 5 home matches analyzed at this venue

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