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Estudiantes de Río Cuarto – Sarmiento0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.84
Total xG
1.87
Sarmiento
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | Sarmiento |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.55 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.46 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Attack weakness (0.52x league average) | −0.38 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (0.7 vs 0.4 season average) | +0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Julián Contrera on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (0.8 vs 0.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form disparity: Sarmiento secured four wins from their last five matches, whereas Estudiantes has only managed one victory during the entire season
- Offensive mismatch: Sarmiento currently averages 1.8 goals per match, well above their season mean, while Estudiantes has scored a mere 8 goals in 23 fixtures
- Low-scoring stadium trend: Historical figures for Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto indicate an extremely low average of 0.8 goals per game, with zero occurrences of both teams scoring in 5 matches
Risks
- Severe away defensive struggles: Sarmiento concedes an extremely high average of 2.75 goals per game when playing away
- Crucial injury losses: Estudiantes is missing L. González, V. Fenoglio, and M. Ruiz Díaz, who are all sidelined due to cruciate ligament tears
All probabilities
Result
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto28%
Draw35%
Sarmiento37%
Double chance
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw63%
Sarmiento or draw72%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.557%
Under 1.543%
Over 2.529%
Under 2.571%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Both teams score
Yes38%
No62%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:1
15%
0:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: opponent scores first in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Sarmiento: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 3-1-4-2 · Sarmiento 4-4-2
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- 1 L. Bruera
- 6 J. Antonini
- 2 G. Maffini
- 31 M. Valenti
- 5 A. Cabrera
- 14 G. Gonzalez
- 8 S. Rosane
- 17 G. Alanís
- 23 F. Rodríguez
- 22 M. Valiente
- 77 I. Hesar
Sarmiento
- 12 T. Ayala
- 20 U. Giménez
- 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
- 2 J. Insaurralde
- 3 L. Suárez Scalarea
- 8 S. Salle
- 16 M. Martínez
- 15 C. Zabala
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
- 24 J. Herrera
Substitutes
- 40 F. Lo Celso
- 29 A. Quiroga
- 43 A. Lastra
- 28 F. Cobos
- 13 F. Romero
- 10 T. González
- 45 R. Lozano
- 32 M. Bajamich
- 11 M. Garnerone
- 3 L. Baños
- 18 J. Rivero
- 99 J. Chala Castillo
- 10 J. Rentería Arias
- 29 T. Santamaría
- 6 G. Arturia
- 77 N. Pasquini
- 7 P. Magnín
- 11 G. González
- 9 D. Churín
- 33 G. Díaz
- 5 M. García
- 23 E. Giménez
- 1 I. Arboleda
- 17 A. Nadruz Blanco
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