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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield - Estudiantes

09/06/2026, 12:15 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Vélez Sarsfield
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Estudiantes
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
VSEST

Vélez Sarsfield

Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Manuel Lanzini on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
Dilan Godoy on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 55% available)

Estudiantes

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.10
Joaquín Tobio Burgos on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Santiago Núñez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vélez Sarsfield: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

31%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Squad impact: Missing Manuel Lanzini and Dilan Godoy leaves Vélez Sarsfield with only 56% of their active goals share
  • Possession dominance: Estudiantes dominated recent matches with an average of 65.4% possession and 5.6 shots on target
  • H2H edge: Vélez Sarsfield won both of their previous head-to-head encounters without conceding
Risk Factors
  • Significant offensive loss for Vélez Sarsfield due to the absence of Manuel Lanzini
  • Estudiantes' goal scoring is stalling recently, averaging 1.0 goal compared to their season average of 1.35
Overview

Top match in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield (3rd place, 28 points) hosts league leaders Estudiantes (1st place, 31 points)

Match on September 6, 2026, 2:15 AM at Estadio José Amalfitani

Form

Vélez Sarsfield is unbeaten in 5 games with the form WDDDD

The home form shows 1 win and 4 draws

Estudiantes has struggled recently with the form LLWLD

The visitors recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their recent matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Vélez Sarsfield scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 0.79 goals per match

Estudiantes boasts a strong defense, conceding only 0.63 goals per game

The visitors kept a clean sheet in 12 out of 24 games

Both teams scored in 13 out of 24 matches for Vélez Sarsfield this season

Head-to-Head

Vélez Sarsfield dominates the historical record with 2 wins in 2 matches

The goal difference stands at 3:0 in favor of the hosts

The last direct encounter ended in a 1:0 victory for Vélez Sarsfield

Key Players

Matías Pellegrini is a key threat with 3 goals and 4 assists this season

Lucas Robertone anchors the midfield with a season rating of 6.91

Alexis Castro is in great form with a rising performance trend

Goalkeepers

Tomás Marchiori has a strong season average rating of 7.12 for Vélez Sarsfield

Fernando Muslera has been exceptional for Estudiantes with a rating of 7.18

Both goalkeepers show solid and reliable performances

Influences

The match is played on grass at Estadio José Amalfitani

The stadium average shows a low scoring rate of 1.4 goals per match

Both teams scored in only 40% of the games played at this venue

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