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Vélez Sarsfield – Estudiantes1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Vélez Sarsfield
1.13
Total xG
2.34
Estudiantes
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vélez Sarsfield | Estudiantes |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Manuel Lanzini on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Dilan Godoy on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 48% of goal output missing (only 55% available) | ||
| Joaquín Tobio Burgos on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Santiago Núñez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad impact: Missing Manuel Lanzini and Dilan Godoy leaves Vélez Sarsfield with only 56% of their active goals share
- Possession dominance: Estudiantes dominated recent matches with an average of 65.4% possession and 5.6 shots on target
- H2H edge: Vélez Sarsfield won both of their previous head-to-head encounters without conceding
Risks
- Significant offensive loss for Vélez Sarsfield due to the absence of Manuel Lanzini
- Estudiantes' goal scoring is stalling recently, averaging 1.0 goal compared to their season average of 1.35
All probabilities
Result
Vélez Sarsfield32%
Draw31%
Estudiantes36%
Double chance
Vélez Sarsfield or draw64%
Estudiantes or draw68%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
0:1
10%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vélez Sarsfield: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Vélez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1 · Estudiantes 4-2-3-1
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 2 E. Mammana
- 3 E. Gómez
- 29 R. Aliendro
- 8 L. Robertone
- 11 M. Pellegrini
- 37 J. Policella
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
Estudiantes
- 16 N. Muslera Micol
- 20 E. Meza
- 14 L. González Pírez
- 24 T. Palacios
- 13 G. Benedetti Taffarel
- 8 G. Neves Perdomo
- 22 A. Castro
- 18 E. Cetré Angulo
- 31 B. Gallego Rodríguez
- 28 B. Aguirre
- 19 A. Gaich
Substitutes
- 23 F. Sanguinetti
- 17 A. Zahir Verón
- 15 D. Godoy
- 35 M. Arias
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 22 M. Lanzini
- 16 L. Magallán
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 48 L.Feler
- 47 A. Pereyra
- 39 T. Aguirre
- 30 L. Piola
- 39 J. Elías
- 9 G. Carrillo
- 29 F. Pérez Escudero
- 40 E. Mancuso
- 7 J. Sosa
- 27 L. Alario
- 17 J. Tobio Burgos
- 4 S. Núñez
- 21 L. Piovi
- 1 F. Iacovich
- 32 C. Correa
- 34 M. Monsalve Gonzáles
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