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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Rosario Central - Newell's Old Boys

09/06/2026, 05:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Rosario Central
1.6
Total xG
2.2
Newell's Old Boys
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

16%

2:0

14%

1:1

12%

0:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
RCNOB

Rosario Central

Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.53
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.08
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Giovanni Cantizano on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Newell's Old Boys

Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.34
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.08
Ignacio RamĂ­rez on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Jeronimo Russo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Newell's Old Boys: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Newell's Old Boys with Walter Mazzantti starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (14/8 games, last 23)

  • 3
    Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 11 total)

  • 4
    Rosario Central: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 5
    Rosario Central: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Independiente: 2 goals (84', 90+2')

  • 6
    Newell's Old Boys: 43% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 14)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

27%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Rosario Central's home offense meets a Newell's defense conceding 2.0 goals per away match
  • Tactical dominance: Rosario Central recently averaged 60% possession and 5.6 shots on target per match
  • Head-to-head record: Rosario Central remains unbeaten in the last 4 direct duels, winning 3 of them
Risk Factors
  • Improved away attack: Newell's Old Boys recently averaged 1.8 goals, up from their season average of 1.1
  • Missing squad depth: Giovanni Cantizano is not in the squad for the home side
  • Less recovery time: Newell's Old Boys have only 6 days since their last match compared to Rosario's 8
Overview

Rosario Central (3rd place, 25 points) host Newell's Old Boys (14th place, 15 points) at Estadio 15 de Abril

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on September 6, 2026, 6:45 PM

A classic clash where the home team is considered the clear favorite

Form

Rosario Central form: WWWDL

Newell's Old Boys form: DLWWD

Rosario Central achieved 3 wins in their last 5 matches

The visitors show a balanced run with 2 wins and 2 draws

Statistics

Rosario Central averages 1.27 goals scored per game

Newell's Old Boys concede an average of 2.0 goals per away match

Rosario Central solid at home, conceding only 0.86 goals per home game

Head-to-Head

Rosario Central dominates the history with 3 wins in 4 matches

The last encounter ended in a 2-0 victory for Rosario Central

Newell's Old Boys are still waiting for their first win in these matchups

Key Players

Ángel Di María leads the attack with 7 goals and 4 assists

JĂĄminton Campaz contributed with 3 goals and 4 assists this season

MatĂ­as CĂłccaro is the top threat for the visitors with 5 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Conan Ledesma starts in goal with an average rating of 6.84

Josué Reinatti boasts a strong average rating of 7.31

Rosario Central recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place at Estadio 15 de Abril on grass

Home advantage is visible as Rosario Central conceded only 12 goals in 14 home games

Venue statistics average 3.4 goals per game at this stadium

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