Match report →
Rosario Central – Newell's Old Boys1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Rosario Central
1.61
Total xG
2.24
Newell's Old Boys
0.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rosario Central | Newell's Old Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.53 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.34 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Giovanni Cantizano on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ignacio Ramírez on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jeronimo Russo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Rosario Central's home offense meets a Newell's defense conceding 2.0 goals per away match
- Tactical dominance: Rosario Central recently averaged 60% possession and 5.6 shots on target per match
- Head-to-head record: Rosario Central remains unbeaten in the last 4 direct duels, winning 3 of them
Risks
- Improved away attack: Newell's Old Boys recently averaged 1.8 goals, up from their season average of 1.1
- Missing squad depth: Giovanni Cantizano is not in the squad for the home side
- Less recovery time: Newell's Old Boys have only 6 days since their last match compared to Rosario's 8
All probabilities
Result
Rosario Central60%
Draw27%
Newell's Old Boys13%
Double chance
Rosario Central or draw87%
Newell's Old Boys or draw40%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes39%
No61%
Most likely scores
1:0
16%
2:0
14%
1:1
12%
0:0
12%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Newell's Old Boys: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Newell's Old Boys with Walter Mazzantti starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (14/8 games, last 23)
- Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 11 total)
- Rosario Central: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Rosario Central: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Independiente: 2 goals (84', 90+2')
- Newell's Old Boys: 43% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 14)
Lineups
Rosario Central 4-2-3-1 · Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1
Rosario Central
- 23 J. Ledesma
- 32 E. Coronel
- 46 I. Ovando
- 13 G. Ávila
- 3 A. Sández
- 5 F. Ibarra
- 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 88 A. Rodríguez Guaglianoni
- 11 Á. Di María Hernández
- 8 J. Campaz
- 22 E. Copetti
Newell's Old Boys
- 30 J. Reinatti Balansino
- 6 M. Ortega
- 17 L. Gianetti
- 16 L. Carrizo
- 24 F. Escobar
- 26 R. Herrera
- 5 L. Regiardo
- 7 W. Mazzantti
- 20 F. Guch
- 32 S. Solari
- 9 M. Cóccaro Ferreira
Substitutes
- 10 F. Cervi
- 1 A. Werner
- 28 G. Fernández
- 33 A. Soto
- 26 G. Cantizano
- 9 M. Ruben Rodríguez
- 31 F. Navarro
- 24 J. Giménez
- 15 F. Mallo Blanco
- 42 E. Verón
- 16 T. Badaloni
- 2 S. Zaracho
- 27 L. Gómez
- 33 W. Núñez
- 25 B. Cabrera
- 19 J. Gómez Mattar
- 22 O. Salomón
- 99 J. Ramírez Polero
- 28 J. Russo
- 21 G. Arias Arroyo
- 36 F. Scarpeccio
- 18 M. García
- 39 L.Rios
- 15 A. Soñora
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →