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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Belgrano - Huracán

09/04/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Belgrano
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Huracán
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
BELHUR

Belgrano

4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Lucas Passerini  on the bench (1 goals, 7 assists)
Francisco González Metilli on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Ramiro Hernandes on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)

Huracán

Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.22
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.07
Juan Bisanz on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgrano: 7 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Huracán: 3.2 cards per game (32 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)

  • 3
    Belgrano: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 4
    Belgrano: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against River Plate: 2 goals (85', 88')

  • 5
    Belgrano: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

32%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Form trend: Belgrano are in positive form, scoring more recently (1.67 goals) compared to their season average (1.41 goals)
  • Tactical advantage: Belgrano recently averaged 4.6 shots on target per match, whereas Huracán managed only 2.4 shots on target
  • Home strength: Belgrano concede only 0.56 goals per game on average at home and lost only one of their last 5 home games
Risk Factors
  • Squad weakening for Belgrano: Key offensive players Lucas Passerini, Francisco González Metilli, and Ramiro Hernandes are missing from the starting lineup
  • Efficiency issue for Huracán: Despite averaging 63.2% possession, Huracán's goal production has stalled with only 1.00 goals scored in recent matches
  • Defensive bias: Both teams excel defensively (conceding 0.74 and 0.84 goals on average), leading to a high probability of a low-scoring game (over 2.5 goals is predicted at only 39%)
Overview

Belgrano (4th place, 24 points) host Huracán (11th place, 18 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 4, 2026, 10:00 PM

The match takes place at the Estadio Julio César Villagra

Belgrano seek to stay close to the top teams

Form

Belgrano present a stable run with a DWWLD form in all competitions

Huracán enter the match with a DWLDD form streak

The hosts recorded two wins and two draws in their last five games

The visitors secured one win and three draws during this period

Statistics

Belgrano average 1.15 goals scored and only 0.74 goals conceded this season

Huracán stand at an average of 1.00 goals scored and 0.84 goals conceded

The hosts are strong at home, conceding just 0.56 goals per game

Huracán have a balanced away record of 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 direct encounters in recent history

Huracán hold 1 win, while Belgrano have won 2 times alongside one draw

The goal difference is balanced at 5 to 5 goals

The last meeting ended in a 3-1 home victory for Huracán on March 3, 2026

Key Players

Lisandro López impresses in defense with a season rating of 7.27 and 1 goal

Lucas Zelarayán contributes 4 goals and 3 assists in midfield with a 7.19 rating

Nicolás Fernández leads the attack with 5 goals and 4 assists, rating 6.81

Jordy Caicedo is the top threat with 11 season goals and a 6.83 rating

Leonardo Gil commands the midfield with a 7.09 rating, 1 goal, and 2 assists

Óscar Cortés adds offensive quality with 2 goals, 4 assists, and a 6.92 rating

Goalkeepers

Thiago Cardozo featured in 26 matches and secured 14 clean sheets

Hernán Galíndez made 24 appearances and recorded 11 clean sheets

Both goalkeepers show steady average ratings of 7.08 and 6.94

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio Julio César Villagra

Belgrano enjoy a solid home record, conceding only 9 goals in 16 home games

The stadium statistics show an average of 2.2 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the previous fixtures at this venue

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