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Belgrano – Huracán1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Belgrano
1.24
Total xG
2.23
Huracán
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Belgrano | Huracán |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Lucas Passerini on the bench (1 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Francisco González Metilli on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Ramiro Hernandes on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Juan Bisanz on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Form trend: Belgrano are in positive form, scoring more recently (1.67 goals) compared to their season average (1.41 goals)
- Tactical advantage: Belgrano recently averaged 4.6 shots on target per match, whereas Huracán managed only 2.4 shots on target
- Home strength: Belgrano concede only 0.56 goals per game on average at home and lost only one of their last 5 home games
Risks
- Squad weakening for Belgrano: Key offensive players Lucas Passerini, Francisco González Metilli, and Ramiro Hernandes are missing from the starting lineup
- Efficiency issue for Huracán: Despite averaging 63.2% possession, Huracán's goal production has stalled with only 1.00 goals scored in recent matches
- Defensive bias: Both teams excel defensively (conceding 0.74 and 0.84 goals on average), leading to a high probability of a low-scoring game (over 2.5 goals is predicted at only 39%)
All probabilities
Result
Belgrano40%
Draw32%
Huracán28%
Double chance
Belgrano or draw72%
Huracán or draw60%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
12%
0:1
9%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Belgrano: 7 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Huracán: 3.2 cards per game (32 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
- Belgrano: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Belgrano: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against River Plate: 2 goals (85', 88')
- Belgrano: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
Lineups
Belgrano 4-2-3-1 · Huracán 4-2-3-1
Belgrano
- 25 T. Cardozo Brugman
- 26 A. Benítez Cabrera
- 14 L. Morales
- 17 L. López
- 3 A. Sporle
- 20 F. Vázquez
- 21 A. Sánchez
- 24 E. Rigoni
- 10 L. Zelarayán
- 53 J. Velazquez
- 22 N. Fernández
Huracán
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 2 L. Blondel
- 21 H. Nervo
- 35 M. Palazzo
- 25 C. Ibáñez
- 5 R. Fernández Cedrés
- 15 F. Waller Martiarena
- 24 F. Kalinger di Napoli
- 8 L. Gil
- 7 O. Cortés Cortés
- 9 J. Caicedo Medina
Substitutes
- 30 G. Zelarayán
- 37 L. Gutierrez
- 9 L. Passerini
- 2 A. Maldonado
- 5 S. Longo
- 8 R. Hernandes
- 11 F. González Metilli
- 16 F. Ricca Rostagnol
- 23 M. Vicentini
- 15 R. Tulián
- 19 S. Gatti
- 58 A. Bono
- 4 F. Vera
- 20 P. Ojeda
- 11 T. Peralta Ortiz
- 10 Ó. Romero Villamayor
- 34 I. Campo
- 17 J. Bisanz
- 32 S. Meza
- 6 F. Pereyra
- 19 L. Lescano
- 33 B. Barticciotto
- 41 L. Mora
- 49 T. Natanael Uribe Sanders
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