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San Lorenzo – Talleres Córdoba1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
San Lorenzo
1.31
Total xG
2.41
Talleres Córdoba
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Lorenzo | Talleres Córdoba |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 1 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Alexandro Maidana on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Timoteo Chamorro on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.2 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Talleres Córdoba averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, showing high offensive activity
- Historical advantage for San Lorenzo with 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-head matches and no defeats
- The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 40% for San Lorenzo
Risks
- San Lorenzo's goal production is struggling severely, averaging just 0.25 goals per game in recent matches
- The injury absence of defender G. Hernández weakens the stability of the home team
- San Lorenzo enters the match with only 4 days of rest, giving them less recovery time than the visitors
All probabilities
Result
San Lorenzo40%
Draw31%
Talleres Córdoba29%
Double chance
San Lorenzo or draw71%
Talleres Córdoba or draw60%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
0:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Talleres Córdoba: 3 cards per game (32 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Talleres Córdoba: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- San Lorenzo: 2.8 cards per game (30 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
San Lorenzo 4-2-3-1 · Talleres Córdoba 4-2-3-1
San Lorenzo
- 25 J. Devecchi
- 32 E. Herrera
- 2 D. Arboleda Hurtado
- 19 E. Amor
- 3 T. Rodríguez Pagano
- 5 I. Perruzzi Ambrosini
- 8 C. Insaurralde
- 24 N. Tripichio
- 38 F. Farías
- 9 A. Cuello
- 29 R. Auzmendi
Talleres Córdoba
- 32 L. Unsain
- 20 A. Schott
- 4 M. Catalán
- 13 V. Fascendini
- 23 G. Báez Corradi
- 5 M. Galarza
- 15 J. Sforza
- 11 V. Depietri
- 19 F. Cristaldo
- 37 R. Lima Morais
- 9 A. Álvarez Martínez
Substitutes
- 10 F. Gulli
- 11 M. Reali
- 6 M. De Ritis Serrentino
- 35 A. Cordoba
- 42 F. Lorenzón
- 14 A. Ladstatter
- 13 J. Rattalino
- 20 F. Altamirano
- 30 O. Arias
- 62 G. Alassia
- 39 U. Ojeda
- 44 E. Salas
- 49 V. Dávila
- 7 D. Valoyes Ruíz
- 3 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 2 T. Chamorro
- 36 E. Chiavassa
- 1 S. Barbi
- 10 G. Baroni
- 44 S. Fernández
- 39 L. Fabián Ortiz
- 25 T. Baroni
- 31 B. Trey
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