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Racing Club – Atlético Tucumán1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Racing Club
1.10
Total xG
1.93
Atlético Tucumán
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Racing Club | Atlético Tucumán |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.39 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Racing Club recently controlled play with an average of 57% possession
- Form stability for visitors: Atlético Tucumán lost only one of their last 5 games (Form: DLWDD) while Racing Club suffered four defeats (Form: LLLDL)
- Home advantage and model outlook: The model calculates a 74% probability for a home win or draw (Double Chance 1X)
Risks
- Racing Club's goalscoring has stalled recently, averaging 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.2
- Atlético Tucumán averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Injury blow in defense for Atlético Tucumán with the absence of G. Suso
All probabilities
Result
Racing Club40%
Draw35%
Atlético Tucumán26%
Double chance
Racing Club or draw74%
Atlético Tucumán or draw60%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.559%
Under 1.541%
Over 2.531%
Under 2.569%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:0
16%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
0:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Racing Club: 3.3 cards per game (35 yellows, 5 reds in 12 games)
- Racing Club: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)
Lineups
Racing Club 4-3-3 · Atlético Tucumán 4-1-4-1
Racing Club
- 25 F. Cambeses
- 4 E. Cannavo
- 2 M. Pérez
- 6 F. Rojo
- 19 I. Rodríguez
- 16 D. Ortegoza
- 33 L. Pérez
- 10 M. Miljevic
- 32 L. Díaz
- 9 A. Martínez
- 17 T. Conechny
Atlético Tucumán
- 1 L. Ingolotti
- 24 L. Di Plácido
- 26 C. Ferreira Ñamandu
- 36 L. Vallejo
- 21 I. Galván
- 19 L. Vega
- 11 R. Tesuri
- 31 L. Godoy
- 10 F. Nicola Albanell
- 23 N. Laméndola
- 9 L. Díaz
Substitutes
- 18 L. Espino García
- 14 J. Barinaga
- 11 F. Zaracho
- 43 G. Escudero
- 30 M. Tagliamonte
- 7 D. Vergara Hernández
- 22 E. Torres
- 24 A. Fernández
- 20 G. Lodico
- 5 C. Kranevitter
- 35 D. Deusa
- 38 M. Martínez
- 3 M. Villa Pereira
- 8 A. Ham
- 30 M. Brondo
- 25 T. Durso
- 22 F. Pimienta
- 28 G. Compagnucci
- 32 J. Infante
- 6 G. Ferrari
- 18 R. Ruiz Rodríguez
- 14 P. Canelo
- 5 J. Fernández
- 27 R. Granillo González
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