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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza - Boca Juniors

09/05/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
1.1
Total xG
2.6
Boca Juniors
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
GYEMBJ

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.31
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.31
Attack strength (1.34x league average)
+0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap)
-0.10
AgustĂ­n MĂłdica not in squad (12 goals, 1 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 73% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Boca Juniors

Attack strength (1.55x league average)
+0.78
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Miguel Merentiel  on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists)
Santiago AscacĂ­bar not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Leandro Paredes on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
TomĂĄs Aranda not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Lautaro Blanco on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
73% of goal output missing (only 22% available)
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Boca Juniors: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against HuracĂĄn: 2 goals (87', 116')

  • 2
    Boca Juniors: 7 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Esteban FernĂĄndez starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (12/8 games, last 23)

  • 4
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 5
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

29%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Squad deficit for Boca: Only 22% of active goal share available without the unnominated Miguel Merentiel, Santiago AscacĂ­bar, Leandro Paredes, TomĂĄs Aranda and Lautaro Blanco
  • Offensive form gap: Gimnasia has been scoring more recently (2.2) than their season average (1.2) while Boca's production has stalled (1.0 compared to season average of 1.4)
  • Tactical metrics: Gimnasia averaged 4.8 shots on target recently compared to Boca Juniors' average of 4.2
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza concedes 1.17 goals per match on average this season
  • Boca's away trend: Despite a season average of 1.29 goals, the visitors' offense has stalled at 1.0 goals per game recently
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions for this match
Overview

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (10th place, 19 points) host Boca Juniors (2nd place, 30 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on September 5, 2026, 9:30 PM at Estadio Feliciano Gambarte

Boca Juniors are fighting for the championship while Gimnasia look to close the gap

Form

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza show a strong form curve with the sequence WLWWW

The hosts recorded 4 wins and only 1 defeat in their last 5 matches

Boca Juniors are unbeaten in their last 5 matches with the form WDDDW

The visitors registered 2 wins and 3 draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Gimnasia averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per match this season

In front of their home crowd, their defense is extremely stable conceding only 0.69 goals per game

Boca Juniors scores an average of 1.29 goals and concedes 0.83 goals per match

The visitors have kept 11 clean sheets in this campaign

Head-to-Head

There has been only 1 direct encounter between both teams

The match ended in a 1-1 draw

The goal difference in the historical record stands at 1-1

The last meeting on February 28, 2026 ended without a winner

Key Players

Facundo Lencioni leads the hosts with 4 goals and 7 assists this season

Esteban FernĂĄndez impresses with 1 goal and 3 assists and a rating of 6.94

Luciano Cingolani has scored 1 goal in 14 matches so far

For Boca Juniors, Alan Velasco is in focus with 3 goals this season

TomĂĄs Belmonte contributed 1 goal in 12 appearances

Leonel BenjamĂ­n Flores has recorded 1 assist so far

Not squad members for the visitors: Miguel Merentiel, Santiago AscacĂ­bar, Leandro Paredes, TomĂĄs Aranda, Lautaro Blanco

Not squad members for the hosts: AgustĂ­n MĂłdica

Goalkeepers

Cesar Rigamonti is in goal for Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza and holds a rating of 7.09

He has kept 7 clean sheets in the current season

Álvaro Montero is in goal for the visitors with a rating of 6.98 in 7 appearances

Influences

Gimnasia benefits from home advantage with only 0.69 goals conceded per home game

Estadio Feliciano Gambarte averages 2.2 goals per game historically

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches at this venue

No weather data available for this match

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