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Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza – Boca Juniors2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
1.13
Total xG
2.61
Boca Juniors
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.55x league average) | +0.78 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.31 | |
| Attack strength (1.34x league average) | +0.13 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Agustín Módica not in squad (12 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 73% available) | ||
| Miguel Merentiel on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Santiago Ascacíbar not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Leandro Paredes on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Tomás Aranda not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Lautaro Blanco on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 73% of goal output missing (only 22% available) | ||
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad deficit for Boca: Only 22% of active goal share available without the unnominated Miguel Merentiel, Santiago Ascacíbar, Leandro Paredes, Tomás Aranda and Lautaro Blanco
- Offensive form gap: Gimnasia has been scoring more recently (2.2) than their season average (1.2) while Boca's production has stalled (1.0 compared to season average of 1.4)
- Tactical metrics: Gimnasia averaged 4.8 shots on target recently compared to Boca Juniors' average of 4.2
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza concedes 1.17 goals per match on average this season
- Boca's away trend: Despite a season average of 1.29 goals, the visitors' offense has stalled at 1.0 goals per game recently
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions for this match
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza28%
Draw29%
Boca Juniors43%
Double chance
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza or draw57%
Boca Juniors or draw72%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Boca Juniors: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Huracán: 2 goals (87', 116')
- Boca Juniors: 7 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Esteban Fernández starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (12/8 games, last 23)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 4-2-3-1 · Boca Juniors 4-3-3
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- 23 C. Rigamonti
- 32 L. Paredes
- 2 D. Mondino
- 4 E. Muñoz
- 3 M. Recalde
- 21 F. Antonini
- 28 T. O'Connor
- 7 L. Cingolani
- 30 E. Fernández
- 26 F. Lencioni
- 17 I. Sabatini Charparin
Boca Juniors
- 1 Á. Montero Perales
- 24 D. Gorosito
- 4 J. Figal
- 26 M. Pellegrino
- 46 M. Satas
- 8 T. Belmonte
- 23 C. Rey Domenech
- 21 K. Zenon
- 20 A. Velasco
- 13 E. Valencia Lastra
- 19 L. Flores
Substitutes
- 8 M. Vargas Martín
- 11 S. Rodríguez
- 35 V. Simoni
- 19 J. Ceballos
- 15 U. Sánchez
- 36 I. Cortez
- 10 N. Romano Di Marco
- 33 O. Andrada
- 5 N. Barboza
- 42 L. Carrera
- 31 L. Petruchi
- 16 G. Guiffrey
- 5 L. Paredes
- 11 Á. Romero Villamayor
- 9 M. Giménez
- 15 W. Alarcón Cepeda
- 7 C. Palacios Núñez
- 12 L. Brey
- 3 L. Blanco
- 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
- 2 L. Di Lollo
- 22 S. Villa Cano
- 42 F. Herrera
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