Match report →
Central Cordoba SdE – Independiente0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Central Cordoba SdE
1.07
Total xG
2.26
Independiente
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Central Cordoba SdE | Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.29 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Rising form (1 vs 0.8 season average) | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | +0.02 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Michael Santos not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Horacio Tijanovich on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 67% available) | ||
| Gabriel Ávalos not in squad (11 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Maximiliano Gutiérrez not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lautaro Millán on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Santiago Arias not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 53% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Independiente are heavily weakened: Only 53% of their usual goal threat is available without Gabriel Ávalos, Maximiliano Gutiérrez, Lautaro Millán, and Santiago Arias
- Central Cordoba SdE are also depleted: Without Michael Santos and Horacio Tijanovich, only 68% of their standard offensive power is available
- Offensive form trend: While the hosts score more recently with 1.0 goals per game than their season average, the visitors' attack is struggling at just 0.8 goals
Risks
- Weak home attack: Central Cordoba SdE score only 0.65 goals per home game on average
- Low offensive output: Both teams averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Central Cordoba SdE31%
Draw32%
Independiente37%
Double chance
Central Cordoba SdE or draw63%
Independiente or draw69%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Central Cordoba SdE: opponent scores first in 9 of 10 games (90%)
- Central Cordoba SdE: 50% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 10)
Lineups
Central Cordoba SdE 4-2-3-1 · Independiente 4-3-3
Central Cordoba SdE
- 1 A. Aguerre
- 33 A. Moyano
- 2 A. Maciel
- 6 Z. Mansilla
- 23 J. Cáceres Ovelar
- 22 M. Vera
- 18 L. González Martínez
- 20 F. Martínez Sánchez
- 10 M. Iacobellis
- 7 D. Barrera
- 19 E. Naya
Independiente
- 33 R. Rey
- 29 L. Godoy
- 13 J. Fedorco
- 35 J. Arrayago
- 22 F. Zavala
- 16 M. Curci
- 23 I. Marcone
- 8 M. Meza
- 7 S. Montiel
- 34 F.Tempone
- 19 M. Abaldo Menyou
Substitutes
- 28 L. Sequeira
- 29 J. Flores
- 37 A. Daian Laprida
- 42 J. Pignani
- 25 J. Vallejos
- 17 Y. Casermeiro
- 11 H. Tijanovich
- 3 L. Marchi Rivero
- 5 T. Cravero
- 30 F. Ariel Rodriguez Salomon
- 47 M. Cuitiño
- 32 N. Garrido
- 6 L. Ávila
- 77 S. Mele Castanero
- 14 G. Millán
- 10 L. Cabral
- 24 J. Palais
- 30 T. Parmo
- 32 R. Martínez
- 20 F. Cruz
- 2 F. Calderón
- 39 R. Martino
- 40 J. Velárdez
- 25 N. Junco
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