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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Central Cordoba SdE - Independiente

09/06/2026, 08:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Central Cordoba SdE
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Independiente
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
CCSIND

Central Cordoba SdE

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.29
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.08
Rising form (1 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.06
Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
+0.02
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
+0.00
Michael Santos not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists)
Horacio Tijanovich on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 67% available)

Independiente

Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.36
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.18
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Gabriel Ávalos not in squad (11 goals, 5 assists)
Maximiliano Gutiérrez not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Lautaro MillĂĄn on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Santiago Arias not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
46% of goal output missing (only 53% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Central Cordoba SdE: opponent scores first in 9 of 10 games (90%)

  • 2
    Central Cordoba SdE: 50% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 10)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

32%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Independiente are heavily weakened: Only 53% of their usual goal threat is available without Gabriel Ávalos, Maximiliano GutiĂ©rrez, Lautaro MillĂĄn, and Santiago Arias
  • Central Cordoba SdE are also depleted: Without Michael Santos and Horacio Tijanovich, only 68% of their standard offensive power is available
  • Offensive form trend: While the hosts score more recently with 1.0 goals per game than their season average, the visitors' attack is struggling at just 0.8 goals
Risk Factors
  • Weak home attack: Central Cordoba SdE score only 0.65 goals per home game on average
  • Low offensive output: Both teams averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
Overview

Central Cordoba SdE (12th place, 16 points) host Independiente (5th place, 24 points) at the Estadio Alfredo Terrera

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on September 6, 2026, 10:00 PM

The mathematical model expects a close match with 1.07 home goals and 1.19 away goals, estimating an away win probability of 37%

Form

Central Cordoba SdE (WWLLD) show mixed recent form with two wins and two losses

Independiente (LLWDL) are struggling after suffering three defeats in their last five matches

The hosts secured a draw in their last outing, whereas the visitors suffered a loss

Statistics

Central Cordoba SdE score an average of 0.65 goals per game this season and concede 1.22

Independiente are offensively stronger, averaging 1.29 goals while conceding 1.21

Central Cordoba's home record is defined by a stable defense, conceding only 0.71 goals on average at home

Head-to-Head

In their two previous head-to-head encounters, Independiente won both matches

Both matches ended with a 2-0 victory for the away side

Central Cordoba SdE are still searching for their first goal against this opponent

Key Players

The offensive focus for Central Cordoba SdE is on Diego Barrera with 3 goals this season

Defender Facundo Mansilla stands out with an average rating of 7.05 and one goal in his last five appearances

For Independiente, Santiago Montiel is a key offensive contributor with 3 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Alan Aguerre is in goal for the hosts, boasting a strong average rating of 7.21

Rodrigo Rey guards the net for Independiente with an average rating of 6.78

Aguerre has kept 5 clean sheets in home games this season, while Rey has 2 away clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Alfredo Terrera

In the only recorded match at this venue, only one goal was scored

Home advantage is visible in the hosts' solid home defense, conceding just 0.71 goals on average

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