Match report →
Barracas Central – Argentinos Juniors0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Barracas Central
1.03
Total xG
2.13
Argentinos Juniors
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Barracas Central | Argentinos Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Rodrigo Insúa on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Facundo Bruera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Alan Lescano not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- While Barracas Central (form WLLLD) struggled recently, Argentinos Juniors (form WWLDW) secured three wins from their last five matches
- Argentinos Juniors averaged 64.6% possession and 4.8 shots on target in recent matches
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win with a 35% probability and 1.10 expected goals for the visitors
Risks
- Barracas Central's goal production has recently stalled at an average of 0.5 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.0
- Argentinos Juniors concedes an average of 1.56 goals away from home compared to just 0.41 goals at home
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Barracas Central32%
Draw33%
Argentinos Juniors35%
Double chance
Barracas Central or draw65%
Argentinos Juniors or draw68%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
11%
1:0
10%
1:2
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Barracas Central: 44% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (4 of 9)
Lineups
Barracas Central 5-3-2 · Argentinos Juniors 4-1-3-2
Barracas Central
- 30 M. Miño
- 4 D. Martínez
- 14 K. Jappert
- 15 Y. Rak Barragán
- 31 N. Demartini
- 17 E. Pereyra
- 8 T. Porra
- 5 D. Miloc
- 10 I. Tapia
- 11 N. Briasco Belekyan
- 33 G. Maroni
Argentinos Juniors
- 25 B. Cortés Fernández
- 22 K. Coronel Alarcón
- 16 F. Álvarez
- 6 F. Vázquez
- 20 S. Prieto
- 15 K. Gutiérrez
- 29 E. Viveros Mereles
- 11 N. Oroz
- 8 H. López Muñoz
- 27 T. Molina
- 9 G. Verón
Substitutes
- 23 W. Rivera
- 1 J. Espínola González
- 35 E. Rolón
- 6 R. Insúa
- 37 G. Campi
- 28 R. Bogarín Giménez
- 24 E. Taborda
- 20 J. Candia Hernández
- 79 M. Puig
- 2 N. Capraro
- 77 F. Bruera
- 16 I. Guaraz
- 30 A. Núñez Duarte
- 48 F. Jainikoski
- 17 F. Paredes
- 7 I. Morales Bravo
- 19 M. Giménez Rojas
- 12 G. Siri Payer
- 21 C. Florentín
- 26 C. Bravo
- 47 D. Rodrigo Porcel
- 4 E. Godoy
- 5 Facundo Carrizo
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