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Unión Santa Fe – Instituto3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Unión Santa Fe
0.94
Total xG
2.13
Instituto
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Unión Santa Fe | Instituto |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Attack strength (1.74x league average) | +0.40 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.26 | |
| 5 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | −0.04 | |
| Julián Palacios not in squad (3 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Lautaro Vargas not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Excellent form of Instituto: The visitors travel with an unbeaten streak of 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw)
- Offensive trend of the hosts: Unión Santa Fe is currently scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game, higher than their season average of 1.7
- Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 40% probability for an away win by Instituto
Risks
- Impacted creativity for Unión Santa Fe: Without Julián Palacios and Lautaro Vargas, key assists are missing
- Injuries for the visitors: Midfielder F. Moyano is sidelined due to a muscle injury
- Historical match-up: Instituto has never won a match against Unión Santa Fe in past meetings
All probabilities
Result
Unión Santa Fe27%
Draw33%
Instituto40%
Double chance
Unión Santa Fe or draw60%
Instituto or draw73%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
12%
1:0
9%
0:2
8%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Instituto: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Instituto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 11 total)
- Cristian Tarragona: 5 of 7 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Instituto: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (4 of 10 total)
- Unión Santa Fe: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Unión Santa Fe 4-4-2 · Instituto 3-4-3
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 44 T. Fagioli
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 22 B. Cuello
- 5 L. Menossi
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 10 V. Malcorra
- 25 C. Tarragona
- 19 M. Estigarribia
Instituto
- 29 M. Ledesma
- 30 J. Galván
- 26 L. Mosevich
- 6 F. Alarcón
- 44 G. Cerato
- 55 G. Abregú
- 15 M. Gallardo
- 3 D. Sosa
- 20 J. Córdoba Mosquera
- 17 M. Tissera
- 10 A. Luna
Substitutes
- 4 M. Rocha Calderón
- 46 S. Grella
- 31 M. Aguirre
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 12 B. Pittón
- 43 E. Ramírez
- 17 J. Mosqueira
- 45 R. Solbes
- 36 M. Aimar
- 34 M. Peresutti
- 38 V. Cerrudo
- 32 N. Fazzi
- 19 L. Sanseviero
- 7 N. Guerra
- 13 J. Méndez
- 2 H. De La Fuente
- 9 F. Suárez
- 11 M. Fonseca
- 22 A. Massaccesi
- 32 A. Bravo
- 8 H. Acevedo
- 35 E. Sittaro Miranda
- 21 J. Lázaro
- 23 J. Meli
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