🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Unión Santa Fe - Instituto

09/08/2026, 12:15 AM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Unión Santa Fe
0.9
Total xG
2.1
Instituto
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

12%

1:0

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
USFINS

Unión Santa Fe

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.10
Julián Palacios not in squad (3 goals, 8 assists)
Lautaro Vargas not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Instituto

Attack strength (1.74x league average)
+0.40
5 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.07
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
-0.04
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Instituto: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)

  • 2
    Instituto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 11 total)

  • 3
    Cristian Tarragona: 5 of 7 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Instituto: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (4 of 10 total)

  • 5
    Unión Santa Fe: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

33%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Excellent form of Instituto: The visitors travel with an unbeaten streak of 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw)
  • Offensive trend of the hosts: Unión Santa Fe is currently scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game, higher than their season average of 1.7
  • Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 40% probability for an away win by Instituto
Risk Factors
  • Impacted creativity for Unión Santa Fe: Without Julián Palacios and Lautaro Vargas, key assists are missing
  • Injuries for the visitors: Midfielder F. Moyano is sidelined due to a muscle injury
  • Historical match-up: Instituto has never won a match against Unión Santa Fe in past meetings
Overview

Unión Santa Fe (8th place, 21 points) host Instituto (9th place, 21 points) at the Estadio 15 de Abril

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 8, 2026, 12:15 AM

A tight mid-table clash with both teams level on points

Form

Unión Santa Fe enter with a "WLLWW" form, coming off two consecutive wins

Instituto is unbeaten in their last five matches with a "WWWDW" form

Four wins and one draw show the strong recent run of the visitors

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Unión Santa Fe scored an average of 1.52 goals and conceded 1.32 goals this season

At home, they boast a strong defense conceding only 0.75 goals per game

Instituto averages 1.00 goal scored and a strong 0.83 goals conceded per game

The visitors have kept 9 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

Four head-to-head matches overall with two wins for Unión Santa Fe and two draws

Instituto has yet to win against this opponent

The last match ended in a 2-1 home win on March 1, 2026

Key Players

Cristian Tarragona leads with 13 goals and an average rating of 7.19 for the hosts

Lucas Menossi contributed 4 goals in midfield with a rating of 6.96

Alex Luna is the key attacker for the visitors with 6 goals and a rating of 7.04

Not nominated: Julián Palacios (3 goals / 8 assists), Lautaro Vargas (0 goals / 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Matías Mansilla is the goalkeeper for the hosts, holding a season rating of 6.9

Marcos Ledesma guards the goal for Instituto with a rating of 6.92

Instituto has registered 9 clean sheets this season compared to Unión Santa Fe's 5

Influences

Unión Santa Fe has a strong home record conceding only 0.75 goals per game at the Estadio 15 de Abril

The match will be played on grass

Historical matches at this venue average 3.2 goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.