🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Lanús - Defensa y Justicia

09/06/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Lanús
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Defensa y Justicia
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
LANDYJ

Lanús

Attack strength (1.28x league average)
+0.37
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.01
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.00
Dylan Aquino not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
Ramiro Carrera on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Defensa y Justicia

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Attack strength (1.38x league average)
+0.01
Leandro Fernández on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lanús: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

  • 2
    Yoshan Valois: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Lanús: 4 of 8 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Lanús: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Strong home record for Lanús with a stable defense conceding only 0.83 goals per home game on average
  • Defensa y Justicia arrive with strong form including three wins from their last five matches and a LWDWW trend
  • Lanús averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Lanús are severely weakened with Dylan Aquino and Ramiro Carrera missing, leaving only 65% of their usual goal threat active
  • Defensa y Justicia show defensive vulnerabilities on the road, conceding an average of 1.33 goals per away match
Overview

Lanús host Defensa y Justicia at the Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 6, 2026, 9:00 PM

Lanús currently sit in 6th place with 24 points

Defensa y Justicia travel as the 11th placed team with 19 points

The mathematical model predicts a 47% probability for a home win

Form

Lanús show inconsistent form with a record of LWLDL

Their last match ended in a 0-1 defeat against Boca Juniors

Defensa y Justicia are in strong form with a record of LWDWW

The visitors recently recorded two consecutive wins, including 1-0 against Platense

Statistics

Lanús average 1.04 goals scored and 1.04 goals conceded per game this season

At home, their defense is solid, conceding only 0.83 goals per match

Defensa y Justicia average 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded in away games

Head-to-Head

Two previous head-to-head matches both ended in draws

The last meeting on March 2, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

The historical goal difference is even at 1-1

Key Players

Carlos Izquierdoz anchors the hosts' defense with a 7.13 rating and has scored 2 goals

Felipe Peña Biafore recently scored 2 goals in 5 matches

For the visitors, Juan Gutiérrez leads with 4 goals and 5 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Nahuel Losada guards the goal for Lanús and has kept 9 clean sheets

Matías Borgogno features for Defensa y Justicia, securing 6 clean sheets so far

Influences

Lanús benefit from playing at home on natural grass

Recent matches at this venue averaged 1.6 total goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.