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Lanús – Defensa y Justicia1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Lanús
1.41
Total xG
2.34
Defensa y Justicia
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lanús | Defensa y Justicia |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.37 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Attack strength (1.38x league average) | +0.01 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Aquino not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ramiro Carrera on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 48% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Leandro Fernández on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Strong home record for Lanús with a stable defense conceding only 0.83 goals per home game on average
- Defensa y Justicia arrive with strong form including three wins from their last five matches and a LWDWW trend
- Lanús averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Lanús are severely weakened with Dylan Aquino and Ramiro Carrera missing, leaving only 65% of their usual goal threat active
- Defensa y Justicia show defensive vulnerabilities on the road, conceding an average of 1.33 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Lanús47%
Draw30%
Defensa y Justicia23%
Double chance
Lanús or draw77%
Defensa y Justicia or draw53%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lanús: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Yoshan Valois: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Lanús: 4 of 8 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Lanús: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Lanús 4-2-3-1 · Defensa y Justicia 4-3-3
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 33 T. Guidara
- 24 C. Izquierdoz
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 6 S. Marcich
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 11 E. Salvio
- 8 F. Watson
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 29 D. Fernández
- 21 H. Martínez
- 3 F. Román Villalba
- 19 D. Barbona
- 15 S. Sosa Yung
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 17 A. Hausch
- 11 T. Perrotta
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
Substitutes
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 16 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 1 F. Petroli
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
- 23 R. Carrera
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 17 D. Medina
- 38 B. Acosta
- 39 T. Laplace
- 40 T. López
- 42 G. Lobos
- 9 L. Fernández
- 26 J. Lucco
- 36 L. Amade
- 16 A. Portillo
- 2 E. Lucero
- 7 T. Pérez
- 30 D. Domínguez
- 22 M. Porcel
- 27 D. Blanco
- 6 E. Burdin Márquez
- 41 R. Gagliardi
- 45 T. Martínez
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