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Banfield – Barracas Central1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Banfield
1.06
Total xG
2.10
Barracas Central
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Banfield | Barracas Central |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.26 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | +0.24 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (0.3 vs 1 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Rodrigo Insúa on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Facundo Bruera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Barracas Central is missing Rodrigo Insúa (3G/1A) and Facundo Bruera (1G/1A) who are not nominated
- Banfield was recently counter-oriented with 41% possession and averaged 4.4 shots on target
- The offensive output of both teams has declined recently, with Barracas Central averaging only 0.33 goals
Risks
- Low offensive threat with Barracas Central averaging only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- High probability of a low-scoring match with only 35% calculated probability for over 2.5 goals
- Shorter recovery window for Barracas Central with only 7 days of rest compared to 9 days for Banfield
All probabilities
Result
Banfield34%
Draw33%
Barracas Central33%
Double chance
Banfield or draw67%
Barracas Central or draw66%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
11%
0:1
11%
2:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Banfield: 5 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Banfield: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 12 total)
- Barracas Central: 50% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (4 of 8)
Lineups
Banfield 3-5-2 · Barracas Central 5-3-2
Banfield
- 50 D. Rodríguez
- 13 B. Zacarias Oviedo
- 2 S. Daniele
- 6 N. Meriano
- 24 S. López Garcia
- 10 L. Gómez
- 5 S. Esquivel
- 20 T. Adoryán
- 27 L. Abraham
- 22 A. Machado Aycaguer
- 9 A. Balboa Camacho
Barracas Central
- 30 M. Miño
- 4 D. Martínez
- 14 K. Jappert
- 15 Y. Rak Barragán
- 31 N. Demartini
- 17 E. Pereyra
- 8 T. Porra
- 5 D. Miloc
- 10 I. Tapia
- 11 N. Briasco Belekyan
- 33 G. Maroni
Substitutes
- 40 D. Zalazar
- 35 I. Pais Mayán
- 30 F. Anselmo
- 11 F. Álvarez
- 7 L. Piñero
- 25 G. Santilli
- 18 F. Medina
- 21 L. Villegas
- 3 N. Paz
- 28 M. Hernández
- 19 L. Cano
- 37 R. Malanca
- 23 W. Rivera
- 35 E. Rolón
- 6 R. Insúa
- 37 G. Campi
- 28 R. Bogarín Giménez
- 24 E. Taborda
- 20 J. Candia Hernández
- 2 N. Capraro
- 13 R. Barrios
- 77 F. Bruera
- 16 I. Guaraz
- 43 L. Fernández
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