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Defensa y Justicia – Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Defensa y Justicia
1.38
Total xG
2.26
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Defensa y Justicia | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.35 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.29 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Agustín Módica on the bench (12 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tomás O'Connor not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 42% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scores more frequently recently (2.2) compared to their season average (1.2)
- Defensa y Justicia averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Mathematical advantage for the home side with a calculated win probability of 47%
Risks
- Away weakness for Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza conceding an average of 2.00 goals per game on the road
- Key offensive players are missing for the visitors with Agustín Módica and Tomás O'Connor
- The mathematical model predicts a low probability of only 39% for over 2.5 goals
All probabilities
Result
Defensa y Justicia47%
Draw31%
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza22%
Double chance
Defensa y Justicia or draw78%
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza or draw53%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Esteban Fernández starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (13/8 games, last 24)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Defensa y Justicia 4-2-3-1 · Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 4-2-3-1
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 29 D. Fernández
- 21 H. Martínez
- 3 F. Román Villalba
- 15 S. Sosa Yung
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 26 J. Lucco
- 19 D. Barbona
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
- 9 L. Fernández
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- 23 C. Rigamonti
- 32 L. Paredes
- 2 D. Mondino
- 4 E. Muñoz
- 3 M. Recalde
- 21 F. Antonini
- 15 U. Sánchez
- 7 L. Cingolani
- 30 E. Fernández
- 26 F. Lencioni
- 17 I. Sabatini Charparin
Substitutes
- 11 T. Perrotta
- 36 L. Amade
- 17 A. Hausch
- 16 A. Portillo
- 32 N. Roselli
- 5 J. López
- 7 T. Pérez
- 30 D. Domínguez
- 22 M. Porcel
- 27 D. Blanco
- 6 E. Burdin Márquez
- 45 T. Martínez
- 8 M. Vargas Martín
- 11 S. Rodríguez
- 35 V. Simoni
- 22 J. Franco Arrellaga
- 20 T. Ortiz
- 19 J. Ceballos
- 9 A. Módica
- 33 O. Andrada
- 5 N. Barboza
- 42 L. Carrera
- 31 L. Petruchi
- 16 G. Guiffrey
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