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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Defensa y Justicia - Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

09/11/2026, 10:15 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Defensa y Justicia
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
DYJGYEM

Defensa y Justicia

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.35
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.29
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.29
AgustĂ­n MĂłdica on the bench (12 goals, 1 assists)
TomĂĄs O'Connor not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 75% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Esteban FernĂĄndez starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (13/8 games, last 24)

  • 2
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

31%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scores more frequently recently (2.2) compared to their season average (1.2)
  • Defensa y Justicia averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Mathematical advantage for the home side with a calculated win probability of 47%
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness for Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza conceding an average of 2.00 goals per game on the road
  • Key offensive players are missing for the visitors with AgustĂ­n MĂłdica and TomĂĄs O'Connor
  • The mathematical model predicts a low probability of only 39% for over 2.5 goals
Overview

Defensa y Justicia (11th place, 19 points) face Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (10th place, 19 points)

A mid-table clash in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

The match is scheduled for September 12, 2026, 12:15 AM

Both teams are tied on 19 points

Form

Defensa y Justicia show a form of WDWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts secured three wins in their last five matches

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza show a form of LWWWD

The visitors also recorded three wins in their last five games

Statistics

Defensa y Justicia averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded this season

At home, they average 1.08 goals scored and 1.08 goals conceded

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza average 1.17 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded

On the road, the visitors concede an average of 2.00 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There has been one head-to-head match between the teams

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza won that match 2-1 at home

The last meeting took place on May 4, 2026

Key Players

Juan Gutiérrez scored 4 goals and provided 5 assists this season with a 6.86 rating

David Barbona contributed 3 goals and shows rising form with a 7.26 rating in recent games

Facundo Lencioni leads the visitors with 4 goals, 7 assists, and a 7.25 average rating

Not nominated for the visitors: AgustĂ­n MĂłdica (12 goals) and TomĂĄs O'Connor (2 assists)

Goalkeepers

MatĂ­as Borgogno holds an average rating of 7.04 this season

Cesar Rigamonti features in goal for the visitors with a rating of 7.09

Rigamonti showed strong recent form with a 7.39 rating over the last five matches

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per game

The probability for over 2.5 goals is calculated at only 39%

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