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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Atlético Tucumán - River Plate

09/12/2026, 08:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Atlético Tucumán
0.7
Total xG
2.1
River Plate
1.4
Most Likely Scores

0:1

15%

1:1

14%

0:0

14%

0:2

11%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
ATRP

Atlético Tucumán

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.58
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap)
-0.10
Full strength squad available

River Plate

Attack strength (1.54x league average)
+0.55
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.17
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap)
+0.08
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.05
Aníbal Moreno not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Joaquín Freitas not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.40
-0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    River Plate: 7 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    River Plate with Sebastián Driussi starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (17/10 games, last 28)

  • 3
    Atlético Tucumán: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 8 total)

  • 4
    River Plate: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Atlético Tucumán: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

18%

Draw

31%

Away Win

51%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

49%

Away or Draw

82%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • River Plate's offensive strength: The visitors averaged 2.0 goals in recent matches, exceeding their season average of 1.4
  • Mathematical advantage for River Plate: The prediction model calculates a 51% probability for an away win
  • Atlético Tucumán plays a counter-oriented style with an average of only 43% possession in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for weather and duel statistics
  • Extremely low-scoring matches at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro with an average of just 1.0 goals per home game
  • Balanced head-to-head history with 2 wins for each team in the last 4 encounters
Overview

Atlético Tucumán (13th place, 13 points) hosts league leaders River Plate (1st place, 29 points) at the Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 12, 2026, 9:30 PM

The top team enters as clear favorites in this clash

Form

Atlético Tucumán shows recent form of LWDDW with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games

River Plate is in strong shape with form LWDWW, including 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 outings

Statistics

Atlético Tucumán averages 0.88 goals scored and 0.96 goals conceded per match

River Plate features a strong offense with 1.39 goals scored and 0.93 conceded on average

At home, Atlético Tucumán has secured 7 clean sheets with a goal record of 9 to 8

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head history is balanced with 2 wins each for both teams across 4 direct duels

The last encounter on May 3, 2026, ended in a 1-0 victory for Atlético Tucumán

Key Players

Leandro Díaz leads the hosts' attack with 7 goals this season

For the visitors, defender Gonzalo Montiel is highly dangerous with 6 goals scored

Tomás Galván supports the River Plate midfield with 5 goals and 3 assists

Not nominated for River Plate: Aníbal Moreno and Joaquín Freitas

Goalkeepers

Luis Ingolotti has recorded 11 clean sheets for Atlético Tucumán this season

Santiago Beltrán stands strong for River Plate with 10 clean sheets so far

Influences

Atlético Tucumán's home advantage is highlighted by their 7 home clean sheets

The Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro averages just 1.0 goals per match over the last 5 home games

The game will be played on grass

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