Match report →
Atlético Tucumán – River Plate1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Atlético Tucumán
0.73
Total xG
2.11
River Plate
1.38
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético Tucumán | River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.58 | |
| Attack strength (1.54x league average) | +0.55 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| Aníbal Moreno not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Joaquín Freitas not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- River Plate's offensive strength: The visitors averaged 2.0 goals in recent matches, exceeding their season average of 1.4
- Mathematical advantage for River Plate: The prediction model calculates a 51% probability for an away win
- Atlético Tucumán plays a counter-oriented style with an average of only 43% possession in recent matches
Risks
- Limited data availability for weather and duel statistics
- Extremely low-scoring matches at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro with an average of just 1.0 goals per home game
- Balanced head-to-head history with 2 wins for each team in the last 4 encounters
All probabilities
Result
Atlético Tucumán18%
Draw31%
River Plate51%
Double chance
Atlético Tucumán or draw49%
River Plate or draw82%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
0:1
15%
1:1
14%
0:0
14%
0:2
11%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- River Plate: 7 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- River Plate with Sebastián Driussi starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (17/10 games, last 28)
- Atlético Tucumán: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 8 total)
- River Plate: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Atlético Tucumán: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Atlético Tucumán 4-1-4-1 · River Plate 4-2-3-1
Atlético Tucumán
- 1 L. Ingolotti
- 24 L. Di Plácido
- 26 C. Ferreira Ñamandu
- 36 L. Vallejo
- 21 I. Galván
- 19 L. Vega
- 11 R. Tesuri
- 31 L. Godoy
- 10 F. Nicola Albanell
- 23 N. Laméndola
- 9 L. Díaz
River Plate
- 41 S. Beltrán
- 29 G. Montiel
- 28 L. Martínez Quarta
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 21 M. Acuña
- 15 F. Vera
- 23 T. Almada
- 50 T. Andrada
- 10 Á. Correa Martínez
- 26 T. Galván
- 9 S. Driussi
Substitutes
- 3 M. Villa Pereira
- 8 A. Ham
- 30 M. Brondo
- 25 T. Durso
- 22 F. Pimienta
- 28 G. Compagnucci
- 32 J. Infante
- 6 G. Ferrari
- 18 R. Ruiz Rodríguez
- 14 P. Canelo
- 5 J. Fernández
- 27 R. Granillo González
- 18 L. Beltrán
- 8 M. Arambarri Rosa
- 3 F. Ortega
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 2 T. Palacio
- 24 J. Meza
- 33 E. Centurión
- 25 L. Pereyra
- 44 L.Silva
- 20 G. González Apud
- 43 V. Lucero
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →