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Tigre – Rosario Central0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Tigre
1.39
Total xG
2.53
Rosario Central
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tigre | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| Attack strength (1.37x league average) | +0.25 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Giovanni Cantizano on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home defensive strength: Tigre concedes an average of only 0.69 goals per game in their own stadium
- Tactical metrics: Rosario Central averaged 64.4% possession and 5.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Mathematical advantage: The model favors Tigre with a 41% probability of a home win
Risks
- Low offensive threat: Tigre averaged only 2.0 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Historical draw trend: Both previous head-to-head encounters ended in a tie
- Dangerous away attack: Rosario Central scores an average of 1.25 goals in away games
All probabilities
Result
Tigre41%
Draw30%
Rosario Central29%
Double chance
Tigre or draw71%
Rosario Central or draw59%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rosario Central: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Rosario Central: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Independiente: 2 goals (84', 90+2')
Lineups
Tigre 4-4-2 · Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
Tigre
- 12 F. Zenobio
- 4 V. Moreno
- 20 A. Barrionuevo
- 32 J. Villalba
- 3 N. Banegas
- 10 J. Saralegui
- 27 S. González
- 8 M. Garay
- 22 S. López Grobin
- 33 M. Méndez Acosta
- 29 I. Russo Cordero
Rosario Central
- 23 J. Ledesma
- 32 E. Coronel
- 46 I. Ovando
- 13 G. Ávila
- 3 A. Sández
- 5 F. Ibarra
- 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 88 A. Rodríguez Guaglianoni
- 11 Á. Di María Hernández
- 8 J. Campaz
- 22 E. Copetti
Substitutes
- 30 J. Domina
- 5 B. Leyes Sosa
- 21 S. Medina
- 19 A. Oviedo Álvarez
- 11 T. Serrago
- 17 G. Soto Arredondo
- 24 F. Álvarez
- 25 I. Subiabre
- 50 I. Peluffo
- 23 G. Requena
- 40 L. Minniti
- 26 L. Morales
- 10 F. Cervi
- 1 A. Werner
- 28 G. Fernández
- 33 A. Soto
- 26 G. Cantizano
- 31 F. Navarro
- 24 J. Giménez
- 27 G. De Jesús Duarte
- 15 F. Mallo Blanco
- 42 E. Verón
- 34 T. Badaloni
- 2 S. Zaracho
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